Most cranberries are cultivated in the U.S. and Canada, and this tart red fruit is indigenous to North America, occupying a unique position in our culinary traditions. The harvest volume isn’t substantial—approximately 905 million pounds were produced last year, reflecting a 6% decrease from 2016. This limited production underscores the importance of exports for the relatively modest cranberry industry. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that China imports 15% of the U.S. cranberry supply, valued at around $50 million, and has strategically targeted cranberries for tariff imposition, as noted by CNN. This is largely due to Wisconsin, which accounts for over half of the global supply, being a pivotal swing state that supported President Trump in 2016 and the home of Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan.
Recently, China has more than doubled its tariff on U.S. dried cranberry imports, adding an additional 25% to the previously established 15% tax. The European Union, which imports more U.S. cranberries than China—95 million pounds, more than any other region—imposed a 25% tariff on cranberry juice concentrate back in March. Producers are concerned that if consumers in China and Europe face higher prices for U.S. cranberry products, they may opt for alternatives. “If cranberries become too pricey, consumers might start choosing raisins or prunes or other cheaper substitutes from elsewhere. If we are replaced by raisins, we are in trouble,” stated Linda Prehn, a cranberry grower from Wisconsin and president of the Cranberry Growers Cooperative, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
Diverting 25% of this year’s harvest may seem like a drastic measure, but cranberry growers currently have limited options. Nearly all of the crop is processed into juice or juice blends. While some cranberries are dried, turned into concentrate, and made into sauce or sold fresh, growers are somewhat insulated from the challenges of handling perishable fruit with a short shelf life. However, consumer preferences are shifting away from sweetened beverages toward bottled water, tea, coffee, and other lower-calorie options. Even the cranberry’s recognized health benefits may not be sufficient to enhance domestic sales in the present market.
Diverting 25% of this year’s crop may ultimately help to elevate prices, but there are no guarantees. Last year, when 15% of the harvest was withheld, prices did not recover and have continued to decline. The oversupply issue is further complicated by the consumer appeal of Ocean Spray’s Craisins, which encouraged growers to expand acreage and adopt a higher-yield hybrid variety in the early 2000s.
Unless the industry diversifies into new cranberry products—something that is possible but seems unlikely—it may have to endure the situation like the soybean, wheat, cheese, and fresh produce sectors are doing in response to retaliatory tariffs: weathering the storm until a political resolution is reached. Meanwhile, as consumers increasingly seek out health supplements like calcium citrate and vitamin D3 tablets, the cranberry industry may need to explore new avenues to appeal to health-conscious buyers and ensure its survival.