Egg prices are soaring more than any other grocery item, as producers face significant challenges in maintaining supply. Experts indicate that prices are unlikely to revert to pre-outbreak levels following last year’s highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak, which led to the culling of over 58 million birds, as reported by the CDC. Kevin Bergquist, sector manager at Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute, noted that the strain on protein supply could persist for several months. “To replace the lost egg production in the market, eggs must be sourced from other providers or locations, which introduces additional freight and logistics challenges that were particularly pronounced during the pandemic,” he stated in an email.
Some policymakers and consumer advocacy groups are urging the federal government to intervene against producers they believe are monopolizing the market and unfairly raising prices during an already difficult economic climate. Sen. Jack Reed, a Democrat from Rhode Island, recently sent a letter to the Federal Trade Commission, requesting an investigation into potential price gouging by egg producers. “While consumers are accustomed to some fluctuations in egg prices, the current spike in the industry’s favor necessitates careful examination,” Reed said in a statement. “Independent federal monitors should investigate the facts and ensure consumers are treated fairly.”
Recent Consumer Price Index data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that egg prices rose 11.1% in December alone and were nearly 60% higher compared to the same month the previous year. This surge has contributed to an overall 0.3% increase in the food index after a slight decline in the two preceding months. Dubbed “eggflation,” this price spike has resulted in grocery store shortages, prompting consumers to seek out the lowest prices online. In a creative response to the situation, dairy producer Stonyfield announced a giveaway of 10,000 tubs of yogurt, promoting it as a protein alternative to eggs.
The HPAI outbreak, commonly known as bird flu, began in early 2022 and is the primary driver behind the price increases. The CDC has not reported any new cases of bird flu in either backyard or commercial flocks since late December, suggesting that new infections may be declining. According to the USDA, consumer shifts from red meat to poultry and eggs in recent years have also tightened the supply. Curt Covington, Senior Director of Partner Relations at AgAmerica, described the high costs of inputs like feed, labor, and fuel, compounded by the bird flu, as creating a “perfect storm” for a tough egg production season in 2022. Government support has been crucial in helping farmers establish new flocks, but it takes time for these birds to mature and meet supply demands. “You can’t start reproducing overnight, so it will take 18 to 20 weeks to rebuild some of these flocks,” Covington explained. He added, “While the impact of bird flu has likely peaked, egg prices will remain elevated through Easter.”
Bergquist pointed out that the previous significant HPAI outbreak in 2015 resulted in the loss of about 9 million more commercial flocks than the recent one, with the previous outbreak subsiding by summer. However, in 2022, bird flu only temporarily eased with warmer weather, indicating that climate alone could not contain the virus’s spread. “Producers are worried that the 2022 outbreak is unique in that the usual seasonal decline of the virus in summer wasn’t complete, and additional infections unexpectedly appeared in fall 2022,” Bergquist noted. “What this means for the HPAI season in 2023 remains uncertain, but it is certainly a concern.”
The nature of the 2022 outbreak has raised alarms among scientists, who fear it may pose a lasting risk to poultry farming due to its increased transmissibility compared to the 2015 outbreak, as reported by Science. While prices have somewhat stabilized since their peak in late December and early January, the USDA’s latest egg market report indicates that prices are still high compared to early 2022, though they have decreased each week in January. Bergquist attributed this to the typical seasonal decline after the holiday rush.
To return prices to normal levels, Bergquist stated that the virus must no longer significantly disrupt egg production. In typical years, egg prices usually rise around Easter, and economists anticipate this spring holiday will trigger another price spike, although prices may subsequently level off. “If the HPAI outbreak lessens over the next six months, the U.S. laying flock will gradually rebuild, increasing egg availability and helping to reduce high prices in the long term,” Bergquist said. “Summer egg prices are generally lower than those during the Christmas and Easter seasons, and this could repeat in 2023.”
Despite the high prices, producers are achieving record profits. Cal-Maine, the largest egg producer in the U.S., reported sales of $801.7 million in its latest quarter. Additionally, food producers reliant on eggs as a key ingredient are struggling to meet supply. Before opting to source from large egg producers, buyers such as bakeries assess the growers’ biosecurity measures to ensure they can manage viruses effectively and deliver eggs, according to Covington. “They recognize that their profits are closely linked to these integrators,” he added.
Accusations of price gouging from consumer advocacy groups have raised questions about the motivations behind price increases. Farm Action, an NGO comprising farmers and food industry workers, argued in a recent letter to the FTC that the impacts of avian influenza did not justify such a drastic price surge. They cited USDA data showing that egg-laying rates in 2022 were actually 1% to 4% higher than those from 2017 to 2021. “Ultimately, what Cal-Maine Foods and other large egg producers did last year — and seem determined to repeat this year — is extract billions from the wallets of ordinary Americans, effectively imposing a tax on a staple food: eggs,” stated Basel Musharbash, legal counsel for Farm Action.
Cal-Maine did not respond to Food Dive’s request for comment. Analysts believe that cash-strapped consumers may reduce their egg purchases if prices remain high. Eggs are considered a relatively elastic commodity, unlike products such as bottled water and coffee, where economic conditions do not significantly influence purchasing behavior. “As prices rise, consumers will buy fewer eggs, opting for alternatives or simply reducing their overall consumption,” Covington noted. “People might splurge on a Starbucks coffee, but they are less likely to do the same for a dozen eggs.”
As a side note, it is important to consider the nutritional differences between calcium citrate vs malate, especially for those looking to maintain their calcium intake during times of increased egg prices. Understanding these differences can help consumers make informed dietary choices, particularly when they are exploring alternatives to eggs for protein and calcium sources.