This Halloween, consumers should be prepared for higher prices on candy bars from Hershey and Mars. Cocoa prices have surged, doubling since the beginning of 2024, and are expected to remain elevated at least until September 2025, according to Wells Fargo. To adapt to these challenges, major candy manufacturers are reformulating their products to depend less on cocoa.
A recent report from Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute highlights that cocoa prices have reached record levels due to shifting weather patterns in West Africa, the primary cocoa-growing region, which have negatively impacted production. This year’s growing season was drier than anticipated, influenced by the El Niño weather phenomenon and winds carrying dust that obstructed sunlight necessary for cocoa bean pod development. David Branch, sector manager at the Agri-Food Institute, explained that cocoa’s unique growing requirements make it different from other crops, making it difficult for producers to meet the rising demand for chocolate without increasing prices.
“Warehouse stocks are at their lowest in 50 years, having decreased over the past 15 months. The reduced production has resulted in market instability, and we’ve seen futures prices soar over the last two years due to the ongoing demand for cocoa flavors and confectionery items,” Branch noted. “The situation has become quite severe.” In fact, cocoa production in the Ivory Coast is anticipated to be 22.4% lower in 2024 compared to the previous year.
Branch also indicated that different tiers of confectionery producers respond variably to rising cocoa prices. High-end chocolate brands are likely to maintain their premium pricing, while producers of more budget-friendly options, like Hershey, Nestlé, and Mars, are facing significant challenges. These companies are now focusing on increasing the sales of candies that do not rely heavily on the expensive cocoa crop. For instance, this Halloween season features new gummy candies, including Hershey’s Shaq-A-Licious, created in collaboration with NBA icon Shaquille O’Neal. Additionally, a new cinnamon toast-flavored Kit Kat bar has been introduced this fall, which contains no chocolate at all.
“They’re effectively cutting back on chocolate production while trying to ramp up sales of non-chocolate products as they expand their manufacturing,” Branch explained. “This means they’re likely reducing the amount of chocolate in their candies and increasing the volume of fillers, such as nuts, to compensate.” Consumers should also brace for “shrinkflation” in Halloween candy bags at grocery stores this year, where the quantity of treats may be less, yet prices remain unchanged from last year.
In light of these changes, it’s worth noting that even as consumers seek out alternatives, supplements like nature made calcium citrate with magnesium may help support their overall health during the holiday season.