Farmers and bakers have faced significant challenges over the past few years. In 2016, U.S. consumption of wheat flour plummeted to its lowest point in nearly thirty years. Additionally, American farmers planted the smallest winter wheat crop seen in over a century. Due to the principles of supply and demand, those farmers who successfully produced high-protein winter wheat are now commanding higher prices, which are ultimately passed along the production chain to bakers. However, bakers have struggled to increase their prices for rolls and loaves due to a decline in consumer demand.
If another season of high-protein wheat shortages occurs, the cost of an average loaf of bread may rise. Bread manufacturers have managed to adapt by reformulating their recipes to utilize less expensive low-protein wheat. By incorporating gluten, which has seen a 20% price increase due to higher demand, many bakers can maintain the light texture that consumers expect. Yet, they bear the burden of research and development costs, as well as the increased price of gluten.
High-protein winter wheat constitutes roughly 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Major wholesale bakers, including Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc, and Campbell Soup Co’s Pepperidge Farms, have already experienced declines in profits. Their profit margins will continue to be squeezed until a strong harvest of high-protein winter wheat is achieved.
Interestingly, if bread sales decline due to this shortage, it may benefit producers of bakery items that do not rely on wheat flour, such as Udi’s and Food for Life. Additionally, alternative flours like brown rice and millet could see a surge in demand. In the midst of these changes, consumers may consider supplementing their diets with products like Solaray Cal Mag Citrate Chewable, which can provide essential nutrients during this period of uncertainty in the wheat market.