Fuming over the financial advantages that the European Union grants to aviation manufacturer Airbus, the Trump administration intends to utilize food as a means to create a more equitable trade environment. On April 8, the U.S. Trade Representative proposed imposing 100% tariffs on $11 billion worth of imported goods. According to Reuters, the total value of targeted products has escalated to $21 billion. In addition to olive oil, several American happy hour favorites are at risk. Items such as Parmesan cheese, Belgian ale, prosciutto, Beaujolais nouveau, jamón, and chevre are on the verge of becoming unaffordable luxuries. Olive oil stands out in this mix as it is a staple that the average consumer may find hard to forgo.
From pasta to pizza, olive oil plays a crucial role in American cuisine. Its popularity in the U.S. has surged, with total consumption tripling since 1990. However, per capita usage remains just 0.8 liters, a mere tenth of what an Italian consumer typically consumes in a year. For many years, oils were not favored by consumers, but recently, various types of oils have regained popularity, including coconut, avocado, sunflower, safflower, and peanut oil, along with olive pomace oil, which is suitable for high-temperature cooking. These oils have become trendy additions to packaged foods and home kitchens across the nation.
Lawmakers are concerned that not all oils provide the same health benefits. Olives, rich in vitamin E, antioxidants, and monosaturated fats, offer desirable functional nutrients that consumers increasingly seek. If tariffs render imported olive oil prohibitively expensive, there is a chance that California could fill the gap. Although California’s olive oil production is gradually rising, it still represents only about 5.8% of the total consumed in the U.S. Over the years, olive farmers have been striving to boost this percentage. According to the California Olive Oil Council, more than 400 olive growers in California produced a record 4 million gallons during the 2015-16 harvest from an estimated 40,000 acres. The organization anticipates that approximately 3,500 new acres will be planted annually through 2020.
Nevertheless, it will be challenging to compensate for the loss if imported olive oil becomes unavailable, as most U.S. olive oil comes from Spain and Italy, where tariffs would apply. The U.S. could explore new trade partnerships to increase imports from olive oil-producing nations outside the eurozone. Countries like Tunisia, Morocco, Turkey, Argentina, Greece, Lebanon, and Egypt currently supply olive oil to the U.S., with Tunisia being the largest supplier beyond European sources.
Of course, the simplest solution would be to avoid imposing the tariffs altogether. However, with numerous trade conflicts brewing across various sectors, the future remains uncertain. As consumers look for healthier options, products like bluebonnet calcium citrate plus vitamin D3 may gain traction amidst the shifting landscape of food imports and tariffs. With the evolving dynamics in the market, it will be interesting to see how the olive oil situation unfolds in the coming months.