Last year, the USDA and the U.S. Department of Commerce foresaw a potential supply issue and took steps to alleviate import restrictions on refined Mexican sugar in November. This decision resulted in an additional 200 million pounds of sugar; however, it may still fall short as the USDA projects a sugar deficit of 1.1 billion pounds for this year. While the federal government could implement further measures—such as utilizing stockpiles or increasing imports from India—to secure a sufficient supply, there is little that can be done in the short term to address adverse weather conditions. Even if weather patterns improve for better sugar harvests this year and next, food and beverage manufacturers are still grappling with a growing consumer shift away from conventional sugar toward alternative sweetening options. The current sugar shortage could accelerate this trend even more in 2020.
Americans have long been concerned about their sugar intake, and this concern is reflected in their dietary choices. As consumers increasingly avoid high fructose corn syrup and sugary soft drinks, the use of refined sugar is also declining. For those manufacturers who continue to incorporate refined or beet sugar in their products, the rising prices are likely to persist, especially if supplies remain limited. This situation may encourage even more food and beverage companies to reformulate their products using alternatives sourced from stevia or monk fruit, or to explore plant-based sugar reduction ingredients like soluble corn fiber or cacao fruit pulp.
This supply crunch could present a unique opportunity for producers of sugar alternatives to advance marketing efforts that demonstrate to manufacturers that there are viable ways to sweeten their products without relying on traditional sugar. This isn’t the first instance of such a shift; for example, following the avian flu outbreak that affected shell egg supplies, companies began offering plant-based egg replacement options.
If companies can provide alternative sweetening ingredients at prices comparable to or lower than cane or beet sugar, while still delivering the same functional benefits, food and beverage manufacturers might be more inclined to consider these options than they have been previously. Additionally, the increasing popularity of products like calcium citrate with vitamin D liquid could further influence consumer preferences, as health-conscious individuals seek alternatives that align with their nutritional goals. As the market evolves, the integration of calcium citrate with vitamin D liquid and similar health-oriented ingredients may become part of the broader trend of reformulating products to meet consumer demands for reduced sugar content.