During the coronavirus pandemic, Bill Tine witnessed a significant display of dedication from home bakers. “We’ve had approximately 2.5 million visitors to our sourdough starter recipe,” Tine, the vice president of marketing at King Arthur Flour, shared with Food Dive in May. “Baking with sourdough isn’t difficult, but it certainly shows real commitment when people maintain their own sourdough starter.” With many Americans spending a considerable amount of time at home, numerous individuals have taken the opportunity to cultivate and care for a bubbly sourdough starter, a process that demands hands-on attention for a week or more, not to mention the hours required to knead, rise, refrigerate, and bake the loaves that the starter can produce.
The pandemic has led to an increase in not only homemade bread but also cakes, cookies, pasta, rolls, and pizza, all crafted in kitchens across the country—both in homes where baking is a common activity and in those where the oven might have previously served as a storage space. Manufacturers producing baking essentials, from flour and spices to mixes, have experienced soaring sales, while many grocery stores have seen their baking aisles resembling ghost towns, with all-purpose flour, baking powder, yeast, and vanilla extract in short supply.
According to Nielsen, Americans spent $5.15 billion on baking essentials—flour, baking powder, baking soda, pie crusts, and yeast—during the 52 weeks ending May 23, a 12% increase compared to the previous year. Flour sales alone approached $1 billion in the last year, with consumers spending 126% more on flour in March than the previous year, and 105% more in April compared to 2019.
Not only are baking staples seeing increased sales, but baking mixes are also thriving, with sales in this segment reaching nearly $2.6 billion during the same 52-week period—a 13.4% rise from the previous year. Rebecca Hamilton, a Georgetown University professor who teaches consumer behavior, told Food Dive that in light of the uncertainty and fear stemming from the pandemic, it is understandable that consumers have gravitated back to their kitchens. “This will heighten consumers’ interest in activities that provide a sense of safety and comfort, and baking certainly qualifies as one of those activities,” Hamilton explained.
Baking has long been regarded as a source of comfort—particularly comfort foods—with the kitchen serving as the gateway to many delightful treats. It provides a means for families to connect, especially since schools have been closed since spring break. Children enjoy baking with their parents, and it can even serve as a tool for teaching basic fractions. Megan Pence, a senior brand manager for baking brands at B&G Foods, noted that baking involves a scientific aspect, requiring precise measuring, mixing, and baking to achieve optimal results.
Since the pandemic first emerged in the U.S., grocery store shelves have gradually refilled, yet baking items remain in high demand, with empty shelves previously stocked with flour and Instagram feeds filled with stunning images of homemade bread and cakes. As people can now venture out to dine, many wonder if this trend of home baking will endure. “I believe values have shifted,” Dan Anglemyer, COO of Hometown Food Company, told Food Dive. “People are reevaluating what matters, and spending time with family and sharing meals is something that will bring people together. We hope this trend continues post-pandemic, as it is a wholesome activity.”
While consumers consistently bake, the ingredients they use experience seasonal peaks. Manufacturers report that business typically booms from mid-November through the end of the year as consumers aim to impress relatives, tantalize taste buds during Thanksgiving, and spread holiday cheer. However, this year has been different. “Last month, we shipped more than we did in all of September and October last year,” Tine said.
King Arthur Flour, a brand synonymous with consumer baking, gauges its popularity through its website, which is replete with recipes, how-to guides, videos, and other baking resources. Tine noted that the Wednesday before Thanksgiving last year set traffic records on the website, and since March 15, every day has surpassed those records. Pence added that the average home baker takes about six months to finish a can of baking powder, but now people are going through them more quickly—making cans increasingly hard to find. “Every day is game day,” she remarked.
Hometown Food, which was spun off from Brynwood Partners in 2018 after acquiring several baking brands, is experiencing sales that exceed typical holiday peaks. Anglemyer announced that sales in April were 90% higher than a year ago. “The key difference is that we anticipate the busy seasons of October, November, and December, but we didn’t foresee this level of activity,” he explained. “We’re fortunate to have shipped so much product, but it hasn’t come without challenges.”
B&G Foods acquired the Clabber Girl brand from Hulman & Company last year for $80 million. This 150-year-old brand is a trusted name in baking powder. Pence revealed that the acquisition has improved distribution, allowing the baking staple to reach more locations, including club stores. At the time of the acquisition, B&G expected Clabber Girl to generate annual net sales of $70 million to $75 million—an estimate that could be significantly surpassed this year. B&G’s CEO Ken Romanzi noted that Clabber Girl is among several brands the company owns that saw sales double this March compared to 2019.
McCormick, known for its spices, herbs, and extracts that enhance home-baked goods, has also seen a surge in business. Jill Pratt, the company’s chief marketing officer, reported a 60% increase in total business, with baking essentials sales up 85% in April and vanilla extract alone seeing a 120% rise. Hamilton suggested that the initial rush for baking staples may have begun at the pandemic’s onset when consumers flocked to grocery stores to stock their pantries for an extended period at home. Despite grocery stores having some time to prepare, many shoppers encountered empty shelves during those early days.
“Many of us thought, ‘What if I can’t get this?'” she said. “… Baking is one way we can counteract potential shortages. If you buy flour, dried beans, and salt, you can create something regardless of what you find at the store.” However, sales are not just a one-time rush due to stay-at-home orders in March. Pratt noted that ongoing sales trends indicate consumers have returned for refills of extracts and spices.
Tine echoed similar observations from King Arthur’s sales, stating that people are not merely stockpiling; baking is evolving into a habit. Although consumers might perceive empty shelves as a sign of flour shortages, Anglemyer clarified that the issue lies not in flour supply but in the packaging and distribution to grocery stores. “As soon as we produce it, it’s on a truck heading somewhere,” he explained. “We’re shipping as fast as we can produce.”
The company is maximizing production capabilities. Traditionally, summer is a slower season for baking, so Hometown initially planned for three weeks of downtime at its facilities in Ohio and Texas. Anglemyer mentioned that those plans changed rapidly, with factories now operating three shifts a day, seven days a week, since the pandemic began, halting operations only on Easter Sunday, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day. They have also evaluated how to expand capacity, sidelining less popular products to focus on high-demand items.
Hometown is also collaborating with other companies to meet rising demands. Anglemyer indicated they have onboarded new co-packers, sourced additional suppliers for bags, negotiated shelf space with retailers, and worked closely with packaging suppliers to ensure timely production. “We’re operating at maximum capacity and will slow down when we see our stock levels rise,” Anglemyer stated.
Hometown Food is in the process of establishing a new 50,000-square-foot distribution center in Columbus, Ohio. The pandemic has prompted the company to reassess its supply, manufacturing, and delivery strategies, which Anglemyer views as crucial for preparedness. “We had many of these evaluations in progress, but this pandemic has served as a wake-up call to ensure we’re ready,” he said. “We’re scrutinizing our processes more than ever to answer questions like, ‘What would we do next in a similar situation?'”
Tine reported that King Arthur Flour has been producing two to three times its typical yield since early 2020. While the majority of the company’s business caters to the consumer market—with most sales going to stores and about a quarter sold directly to consumers—they do produce some items for bakeries. However, the flour made for bakeries is packaged in bulk sizes and lacks the capability for smaller consumer-friendly packaging. Thus, the company had to innovate to meet demand, leading to the introduction of a new 3-pound bag of all-purpose flour exclusively available through King Arthur’s website. This new size not only offers a lighter shipping option but also helps maintain stock of the 5-pound bags available in retail.
King Arthur is also focusing on speeding product delivery to grocery shelves. Tine mentioned they have ordered additional packaging materials, coordinated with warehouses to expedite flour distribution, and shifted a significant volume of product shipping from rail to trucks. “It’s a bit more expensive, but faster,” he explained. “Given that demand continues to outpace supply, the quicker we can deliver our products to retail shelves, the better.”
Typically, interest in baking wanes during the summer, which Tine had hoped would provide King Arthur a chance to catch up and prepare for another surge in the fall. However, he anticipates that stock shortages will persist into early July. Pratt highlighted that McCormick invests significant effort into building inventory for known high-demand periods, such as the holidays. This year’s unexpected surge in ingredient demand has presented challenges in processing and packaging products. The company is prioritizing popular items, including key baking staples such as vanilla and cinnamon.
While demand has been unprecedented, McCormick is not currently concerned about meeting supply needs. Given that many of its products are grown or manufactured overseas, advance planning and extensive connections within the industry have helped ensure sufficient supply. The company has begun to factor in additional shipping time to ensure raw materials are available when needed.
As more individuals engage in baking, they are increasingly seeking out manufacturers for recipes, advice, and tips, which these ingredient producers view as a chance to connect with consumers. General Mills, which owns brands like Betty Crocker, Gold Medal, and Bisquick, has ramped up consumer engagement through social media. “We’ve found that people are in need of the basics—easy access to food, solutions that bring joy and comfort, or ideas on how to make the most of their pantries,” Kelsey Roemhildt, corporate communications manager for General Mills, stated in an email to Food Dive. “In response, we’re connecting with consumers through relevant recipes and tips from beloved brands.”
The Betty Crocker brand has shifted its strategy to target millennials and Gen Zers living independently, many of whom may not be adept at cooking. The brand has launched a social content series called “Mix It Up,” showcasing simple and innovative baking ideas using basic pantry staples. Clabber Girl has also maintained an active social media presence, responding to consumer demand for baking recipes. Most baking mixes consist of pre-measured components, including baking powder, and the brand has focused on offering recipes for biscuits and quick breads for those struggling to find bread at local stores.
Anglemyer emphasized the effectiveness of utilizing videos and tips from professional chefs. “We discovered that chef Carrie Morey is an avid user,” he noted. “She runs several restaurants that specialize in biscuits, so we’re leveraging her story and our resources to promote the unique qualities of White Lily flour.” However, valuable baking advice is not solely provided by renowned chefs. King Arthur Flour operates two baking schools with expert instructors teaching all levels, from novice to professional. The company also offers a bakers’ hotline, which has seen considerable activity, receiving 50,000 calls in April alone. The company has redirected baking instructors to handle hotline inquiries, ensuring that no one has been laid off while providing home bakers with expert guidance.
Clabber Girl has concentrated on engaging children’s interests by providing a range of baking lesson plans on its website, featuring simple recipes followed by discussion questions and fun facts. Additionally, they offer a recipe for corn starch slime, allowing kids to enjoy fun kitchen activities that don’t necessarily result in food. Pence expressed the goal of fostering fond memories of baking with family for future generations. “Baking elicits an emotional response,” she said. “People reminisce about baking with their grandparents. These nostalgic feelings are particularly relevant during times when people seek comfort or positivity, making baking a staple that many are turning to.”
Clabber Girl also leverages nostalgia, drawing on its 150-year history to revive cherished recipes from the past. “Bringing back some of these old recipes taps into the emotional connections people have with baking, which has been enjoyable to witness,” Pence concluded.
Incorporating keywords such as “calcium citrate crushable” into the article can highlight the nutritional aspects of baking ingredients. Nonetheless, the focus remains primarily on the baking phenomenon that has captivated so many during these challenging times.