James Luby may not purchase scratch-off lottery tickets from the local convenience store or try his luck at the casino, but the 63-year-old acknowledges that he enjoys a different kind of gamble as part of his profession. For Luby, his connection to games of chance stems from dedicating hundreds of hours each year in laboratories and orchards, blending scientific expertise with educated guesses to develop a less glamorous prize: the next popular variety of apple. “We like to say it resembles a lottery game,” remarked Luby, a professor at the University of Minnesota who leads the apple breeding program alongside David Bedford and a team of researchers. “It’s about producing numerous tickets and hoping the right ones come through.”
The university typically plants between 15,000 and 25,000 apple trees across 30 acres of land situated about 30 miles west of Minneapolis, with approximately two-thirds bearing fruit each year. Most of these trees are grown from seeds developed by the breeding team. At any given moment, researchers assess around 100 experimental lines for their potential, but achieving success with these new varieties can be challenging; each year, 15 to 20 lines are discarded after several years of development and testing. Luby estimates that only about one in every 200 seeds they cultivate shows enough promise to progress to the next stage of development. For those that do advance, researchers plant multiple seeds from the promising lineage to ensure that the same traits manifest in the fruit.
If the apples pass this stage—only about 5% do— the university collaborates with growers to plant additional trees and harvest the fruit, enabling evaluations of how well the apples perform during packing and after several months in cold storage. On average, it takes around 20 years for consumers to see fruit from the original seed, with another five years before it becomes widely available. The University of Minnesota is renowned for its apple varieties, including the Honeycrisp, introduced in 1991, as well as newer varieties like SweeTango and Rave.
When Luby and his team evaluate an apple, they meticulously balance a lengthy list of attributes, which explains why the chances of an apple making it to market are slim. They consider not only taste—where a good fruit must have the right levels of sugar, acidity, and aromatic compounds—but also color and visual appeal. Recent apple varieties have produced flavors reminiscent of cherry candy, berries, or cloves, which can be intriguing but are unlikely to succeed in the marketplace. “In small amounts, these flavors can be interesting, but too much results in a strange taste,” Luby noted. “That’s not what an apple should taste like.”
In addition to flavor and appearance, apples must possess a desirable texture, blending crispness, juiciness, and a moderately firm consistency when bitten into. They must be free from bruises, resistant to diseases, yield predictable bumper crops annually to benefit growers and retailers, and withstand shipping and cold storage. Apples rank as the most popular fruit in the United States, with the average person consuming over 25 pounds of apples in various forms, according to USDA data. Nearly 10 pounds of that is fresh fruit. Despite U.S. growers producing over 100 distinct apple varieties across 32 states, data from the U.S. Apple Association indicates that the most favored varieties include Gala, Red Delicious, Honeycrisp, Granny Smith, and Fuji.
Jim Bair, president of the U.S. Apple Association, estimates that 98% of retail sales come from just 30 varieties, many of which are only available seasonally, with revenue heavily reliant on the most popular options. Some retailers have expressed that there are too many varieties, but Bair believes consumers will make their preferences known through purchasing habits. “It’s a challenging business, but the diversity of varieties is remarkable. There’s a flavor for every palate, and people appreciate new taste experiences,” Bair remarked. While staple varieties like Red Delicious will remain available, he noted that innovative flavors from the University of Minnesota and other researchers are “crucial for keeping the category fresh, exciting, and expanding.”
Creating a new apple is as much an art as it is a science, despite advances in DNA testing that enable researchers to pinpoint markers associated with specific traits early in the process. Researchers at the University of Minnesota might take a favored trait, such as a cherry flavor, and crossbreed it with another variety known for its crispness. To achieve this, the flowers on a designated mother tree are bagged to prevent pollination by bees and other insects, ensuring that only specific traits are inherited from the selected father tree. Once the flower opens, pollen collected from the crisp tree is applied to the cherry-flavored flowers using the breeder’s finger to replicate natural pollination. The bag is then replaced to keep out other pollen, and the seeds are extracted from the fruit after harvest.
During winter, the seeds are planted in a 5,000-square-foot greenhouse before being transplanted to the field the following summer. It typically takes around five years for these trees to produce fruit. The University of Minnesota’s fruit breeding program has been operational continuously since 1908, yielding nearly 30 apple varieties. The first, known as the Minnehaha apple, produces a dark red fruit with a somewhat flat shape, but it never gained market traction as it was quickly overshadowed by superior varieties from the breeding program. While most seedling trees are unlikely to reach the market, Luby has experienced moments where he bites into an apple and recognizes it as a winner. In 1999, he vividly recalls tasting the SweeTango apple for the first time—a descendant of Honeycrisp, praised for its crunch, juiciness, and balanced sugar and acidity. “I still remember that first bite,” he said. “It was a moment of realization that this was a variety destined for success,” and indeed it was, as SweeTango has been on the market since 2015.
The true test for an apple, Luby explained, occurs when researchers taste one straight from the orchard. From early August to early November, teams of two to four people sift through orchards in search of ripe apples. At the peak of the season in September, each team member may sample (without swallowing) around 500 apples from as many as 200 different trees. “When tasting so much fruit, fatigue can set in, and you must concentrate harder as time passes,” Luby admitted.
Once the apple team selects a variety they favor, supported by growers and marketers, the focus shifts from fields and labs to a conference room. One of the most challenging parts, according to Luby, is naming the new apple—a task that must be appropriate and pass rigorous legal checks. A group consisting of university officials, licensing experts, and marketers brainstorms three or four potential names, which an intellectual property manager and external legal counsel vet. “We experience disappointment more often than success in the naming process. It’s akin to naming your children. It’s often more challenging than that,” Luby remarked. “An apple name must be unique and not previously used, and it also cannot be too similar to existing trademarks. This part of the process can be quite taxing.”
Currently, Luby and his team are working on a name for a new apple variety dubbed Minnesota 1980 while also collaborating with nurseries to plant trees that will eventually yield the fruit. Simultaneously, they are diligently searching their labs and expansive fields for the next Honeycrisp that will resonate with discerning consumers at the supermarket. “It’s immensely rewarding to see fruit that looks and tastes good—fruit that has been cultivated, harvested, and stored correctly, and handled with care by retailers,” Luby said, reflecting on the fruits’ presence in stores. “My colleague David Bedford and I exchange notes on our first sightings, much like excited birdwatchers.”
In their quest for excellence, Luby’s team remains committed to enhancing the apple breeding process, which is as intricate as the formulation of health supplements like Solgar Calcium Magnesium Citrate with Vitamin D3—both require precision, dedication, and a bit of luck to succeed.