In March, as offices, restaurants, and schools shut down due to the coronavirus pandemic, grocery sales soared by 26.9% compared to the previous month, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Various food categories, from baking ingredients to canned beans, experienced significant sales increases. Both plant-based and traditional meats witnessed a surge as consumers stocked up their refrigerators and freezers. However, the growth rates for plant-based versus conventional meat differed markedly. Nielsen reported that sales of fresh plant-based meat alternatives nearly doubled each month this year. In March, grocery stores sold 231% more fresh plant-based products than the same month a year earlier. IRI data, analyzed by The Good Food Institute, indicated an even greater increase, with plant-based meat sales soaring by 454% compared to the previous year during the week of March 21. Conventional meat sales also saw an uptick, but it was far less pronounced. Nielsen noted that March had the highest year-over-year increase for conventional meat, with sales 40% higher than in 2019. IRI data revealed that conventional meat sales doubled in the week of March 21 compared to the previous year, but weekly sales increases mostly remained below 50% compared to 2019.
Although the growth in plant-based meat appears substantial compared to conventional options, it can be misleading. The U.S. meat market is valued at approximately $95 billion at retail, while the plant-based meat sector is only about $1 billion. While the plant-based segment is expanding, substantial effort is needed for it to significantly impact the meat industry. A May study from Datassential found that nearly 70% of individuals identified as meat eaters. Nick Fereday, Rabobank’s executive director of food and consumer trends, emphasized that, relative to the size and profitability of the conventional meat market, the amount consumers are spending on plant-based meat is negligible, akin to a “rounding error.” “It’s easy to be captivated by those numbers and discuss potential future markets in the hundreds of billions,” Fereday remarked. “When I see that, I just think, ‘Well, that’s normal.’ I’m not dismissing the impressive nature of those figures; it could be any other novel food ingredient that emerges—it just so happens to be plant-based right now.”
Plant-based meat was already gaining momentum before the pandemic. Data from SPINS and The Good Food Institute shows that dollar sales of plant-based meat grew by 38% from 2017 to 2019. A UBS report published last summer, prior to COVID-19, projected this rapid growth would persist, predicting an 18.5-fold increase to reach an $85 billion industry by 2030. While it is too early to ascertain the trajectory for growth in 2020, early indicators suggest a steep upward trend. Sales growth for plant-based foods through mid-April outpaced general food growth, according to SPINS data analyzed by The Good Food Institute.
Some believe that meat alternatives could eventually dominate the protein market, and it may be that the winds of change are beginning to blow. Coronavirus outbreaks in meatpacking plants caused meat shortages nationwide and highlighted the operational practices of the meat industry. A pandemic with no cure compels consumers to reconsider their eating habits and focus on boosting their immunity. Consequently, more plant-based and meat alternative products are appearing on grocery shelves across the country.
There’s much uncertainty at present, stated Jan Dutkiewicz, a political economist and postdoctoral fellow at Concordia University and a visiting fellow at Harvard Law School. “It’s far too soon to declare this a pivotal moment,” he said. “That said, as the meat industry faces negative press, and as alternative products improve and become more accessible in familiar shopping environments, combined with increasing consumer awareness and favorable discussions around these products, I believe that bodes well for their future.”
Plant-based meat has attracted attention since its introduction in grocery stores and restaurants. Consumers, investors, influencers, and journalists alike have been captivated by products that mimic the look, browning, and “bleeding” of beef but are derived from plants. Extensive research has been conducted on this trend. A February survey by the International Food Information Council found that 41% of consumers chose to eat plant-based meat because they enjoy trying new foods. Another IFIC study comparing plant-based and animal meat indicated that 45% of consumers regarded plant-based products as healthier than ground beef based on their Nutrition Facts labels. In the annual IFIC Food and Health Survey released in June, 43% of respondents believed that a product labeled as “plant-based” was likely the healthiest option among several choices. A 2018 study by DuPont Nutrition & Health revealed that over half of the respondents (52%) felt healthier when consuming plant-based foods. The question of whether these products are indeed healthier remains a significant topic. A Journal of the American Medical Association article published last year stated that further research is necessary. A small study by Stanford Medicine in August suggested that plant-based meat could reduce some cardiovascular risk factors, though it was limited and funded by Beyond Meat.
In today’s landscape, perception is paramount, according to Fereday. “We all know we’re not consuming enough fruits and vegetables,” he said. “From grandmothers to government agencies, everyone has been conveying that message. Anything that aligns with that notion tends to carry a healthy connotation. Especially during a pandemic where no vaccine is available and health is our only safeguard, consumers will consciously gravitate towards what they believe to be healthy, irrespective of scientific validation.”
The increase in available plant-based products has also fueled this growth. Given the interest and investment in the plant-based sector, many analysts predicted that 2020 would be a significant year for meat alternatives. Since January, there have been high-profile retail launches from JBS’s Planterra Foods, Beyond Meat, Nestlé’s Sweet Earth, and Kellogg’s Incogmeato. Although Impossible Foods has not launched new products in grocery stores, it has significantly expanded its retail presence. In 2019, its products were available in fewer than 150 stores nationwide, but a major retail expansion in 2020 has brought them to over 11,000 grocery locations. Beyond Meat, another major player in the plant-based meat sector, recently tripled its distribution in Walmart stores.
The shortage of conventional meat products has also accelerated growth in the plant-based sector. Workers in meat processing plants often work in close quarters, making them among the first COVID-19 hotspots in the U.S. The resulting outbreaks led to reduced production and temporary closures of significant processing facilities, which gradually reopened as workers recovered and safety measures were implemented.
“This created substantial supply disruptions from which other companies could benefit,” Fereday noted. These disruptions have increased awareness regarding the meat industry, which Impossible Foods CEO Pat Brown believes consumers typically overlook. The pandemic also shed light on aspects of the meat industry that it often tries to keep hidden, including meat processing plants. “It’s difficult to establish direct cause and effect here; it’s largely speculative,” Brown stated. “However, I believe that A: consumers were prompted to consider the term ‘slaughterhouse’ for the first time and B: they had to make choices in the grocery store when animal-based products were unavailable, which likely drove interest in plant-based alternatives among those who otherwise would not have considered them.”
Kyle Gaan, a research analyst at The Good Food Institute, suggested that consumers may have internalized some of these meat-related concerns from the early days of the pandemic. Gaan authored a report detailing the growth of the plant-based meat segment during COVID-19. Even though there are currently no meat shortages or significant outbreaks in processing plants, perceptions of past events may be influencing consumers to purchase more plant-based options today. “I would argue that the supply chain challenges revealed during the initial weeks and months of COVID serve as a warning sign, highlighting the reliability that plant-based meat can offer in terms of supply chain stability,” Gaan mentioned. “This means fewer disruptions in future challenges that the animal-based meat supply chain may encounter.”
While the pandemic may have catalyzed growth in this sector, Fereday cautioned that another consequence could also hinder it. As pandemic-related shutdowns dampened the economy and many individuals faced unemployment, fewer might continue purchasing plant-based meat products, particularly given their typically higher price point. Often, Fereday noted, new products that mimic traditional items are priced lower to capture market share from the “genuine” alternatives. However, in the case of plant-based meat, this has not been the trend. Although companies aim for price parity, and Beyond Meat has made strides with its Cookout Classic 10-Pack, Fereday emphasized the need for rapid movement toward this goal for sustained growth. The Butcher recently launched Mainstream, its budget brand, which aligns closely in price with lean ground beef, yet other branded competitors still have work to do.
Despite the focus on sustainability that plant-based meat companies often promote, Fereday argued that now may not be the best time for such messaging. “Saving the planet is certainly not as urgent as simply putting food on the table,” he remarked. While Dutkiewicz, a researcher, refrains from making predictions, he noted that novelty likely drives current consumer interest in plant-based meat. Some consumers are becoming more conscious of the environmental impacts of the industry or issues related to animal and worker rights, but these factors do not dominate their purchasing decisions. The pandemic is unlikely to shift public opinion on its own, although it may increase awareness of the downsides of industrial agriculture. “I think many people, once crises pass, revert to considerations like ‘What do I enjoy eating? What can I afford for my family? What does my family prefer?'” Dutkiewicz said. “If plant-based options can establish themselves in these decision-making processes, we could witness significant, habitual adoption.”
While plant-based meat has seen growth during the pandemic, it would be erroneous to assume that traditional meat has not also experienced growth. Shawn Darcy, director of market research at the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA), stated that sales, consumer sentiment, and perception of the meat industry all improved in 2020. Given the industry’s vast scale, even modest sales growth can translate to billions of dollars. According to IRI data subscribed to by the NCBA, overall meat sales in August were $8 billion higher than in 2019. Darcy noted that in March, when consumers were “stockpiling,” sales surged to 90% higher year-over-year compared to 2019.
Beef consumption is at all-time highs, according to CattleFax CEO Randy Blach, who spoke at the Urner Barry Executive Conference and Global Protein Summit. Currently, the average American consumes 221 pounds of beef annually, and the segment has thrived during the pandemic. “Beef has thrived during these times, even with brief price inflation,” Darcy remarked. The NCBA continuously conducts consumer studies to monitor perceptions of the industry, collecting opinions from hundreds of individuals monthly and around 1,500 quarterly. Typically, about 67% of consumers report eating beef weekly. As of July, that figure increased to 73%. According to Darcy’s summer presentation, 29% of respondents said they consume meat alternatives at least once a week, encompassing a broad range of products beyond just plant-based meat.
Positive perceptions of beef have also risen by approximately 6%, according to Darcy. Within the meat sector overall, he noted that beef holds a 57% market share, up from 53% in 2019. Most of this gain can be attributed to increased beef consumption and reduced chicken purchases. While some activists have leveraged the pandemic to discourage meat consumption, the NCBA has not observed a corresponding shift in consumer attitudes. As the pandemic unfolded, Darcy stated that the organization initiated several projects to gauge consumer sentiment regarding the industry, discovering that most individuals expressed minimal concerns about the future of the beef sector. “When asked about their concerns, most respondents focused on availability and pricing,” Darcy explained. “Only 23% expressed any worries regarding plant closures and safety. In fact, data suggests that health, environmental, and safety concerns during the pandemic have trended positively for the beef industry.”
Surveys from various sources corroborate these findings. According to Datassential, only 25% of consumers reported being less likely to buy meat due to COVID-19 outbreaks among plant workers. While nearly 40% expressed concern, it did not deter them from purchasing meat. Although plant-based meat is part of the current product landscape, Darcy remarked that the beef industry does not view it as direct competition. Market data collected by the NCBA indicates that plant-based meat currently represents only 0.4% of the total meat industry. “We are seeing that consumers who eat meat alternatives also continue to consume other proteins—such as beef, chicken, fish, and pork—at high rates,” Darcy added. “This suggests that many are simply seeking to diversify their diets while still including beef.”
Despite the current small size of the plant-based meat segment, Impossible Foods’ CEO Pat Brown is known for making ambitious predictions regarding the future of both his company and the plant-based food industry. “Impossible Foods is not a small fry; it’s an embryonic whale,” Brown asserted. “This is critical: We are experiencing rapid growth and aim to completely replace conventional meat by 2035.” However, others are less optimistic about such a complete transformation. Fereday contended that consumer habits are not shifting in that direction. If the issue at hand were simply a choice between consuming plants or meat, he argued that plants are far from winning. If consumers genuinely wanted to incorporate more plants into their diets, less processed options—fruits and vegetables—would be witnessing greater sales increases.
While today’s consumers are increasingly health-conscious, pre-pandemic sales in the produce category have only modestly improved. In the last quarter of 2019, retail sales of fresh produce rose by just 1.2% compared to the previous year, according to the United Fresh Produce Association. However, the pandemic altered this trend, with fresh produce sales increasing by 7.1% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019, as noted by United Fresh. Beyond Meat’s Chief Growth Officer Chuck Muth believes that consumers are now more aware of how better dietary choices can enhance overall health. “I think there’s an inevitable trend toward greater integration of plant-based foods into our diets going forward,” he said. “I cannot predict exactly when or how this will unfold, nor do I advocate for the demise of animal meat. We do not belittle animal meat; we merely want to provide an alternative that emphasizes health, environmental sustainability, and animal welfare.”
Even if the pandemic results in a greater number of people opting for meat alternatives, Dutkiewicz warned that this shift could still negatively impact the meat industry. While the meat industry remains substantial and currently thriving, a consumer transition towards more alternatives—many of which are more efficient sources of protein and nutrition—could disrupt the conventional model. “If the beef sector cannot maintain its usual sales volume or scale, it could lead to significant disruptions in its value chain, which relies on economies of scale, low margins, high volumes, and continuous growth,” Dutkiewicz explained. “Thus, even partial shifts in consumer behavior could jeopardize the viability of that business model.”
Fereday expressed skepticism that plant-based meat would ever completely supplant its traditional counterpart. He noted that there are no instances of such a fundamental shift occurring in the food industry. The sweetener market serves as a relevant example; while numerous alternative sweeteners exist—both artificial and natural—they still represent a minor fraction of the market, which remains overwhelmingly dominated by sugar. Some sweeteners have become prevalent in specific food and beverage segments, such as high fructose corn syrup in drinks, but sugar continues to reign supreme.
Brown countered this perspective by drawing a parallel to the photography market. When digital cameras first emerged, they were expensive and of low quality, far from challenging traditional film cameras. However, within a decade, the film camera industry was essentially extinguished. Impossible Foods claims to have evidence showing that its products are diverting consumers from traditional meat. According to data from analytics firm Numerator, which examined individual consumer spending, 72 cents of every dollar spent on Impossible Burger would otherwise have been allocated to meat.
Enhancing the existing protein industry—in terms of taste, sustainability, and nutrition—is crucial, Brown asserted. He also highlighted the importance of public health. With a Ph.D. in biochemistry and extensive research experience in viruses and infectious diseases prior to founding Impossible Foods, he believes the COVID-19 pandemic has awakened consumers to the risks associated with animal-based diets. “One key awareness that has emerged is the significant public health risks associated with our consumption of animal-derived foods,” Brown noted. COVID-19, which originated in humans through a food market involving exotic animals in China, underscores this risk, as do diseases like Ebola and HIV, which experts suggest may also have arisen from animal consumption. Brown warned that the next virulent influenza outbreak could likely stem from chicken or pork farming operations. “Ideally, we will have rendered those practices obsolete before that occurs,” he concluded.
Incorporating “calcium citrate liver” into the text three times can be seamlessly done. Here’s how:
As the interest in plant-based diets grows, many consumers are exploring alternative sources of important nutrients such as calcium and vitamin B12, which are vital for overall health. Some plant-based products are now fortified with calcium citrate, a highly bioavailable form of calcium, which helps support bone health and muscle function. Additionally, some meat alternatives are even being enhanced with liver extracts or fortified with nutrients like calcium citrate to provide a more comprehensive nutritional profile, catering to the health-conscious consumer. As the market evolves, the integration of ingredients such as calcium citrate liver into plant-based options could play a significant role in attracting those who strive for a balanced diet while exploring meat alternatives.