Climate change is not the sole challenge facing the global cocoa market. A report released earlier this year highlighted that corporate sustainability efforts have fallen short over the past decade due to persistent issues such as high child labor rates, low farmer incomes, and extensive deforestation. Furthermore, the combination of rising temperatures and altitude-related challenges exacerbates the situation.
Despite these difficulties, the demand for cocoa continues to surge, driven by the growing popularity of premium varieties, dark chocolate, and sugar-free options. The U.S., the world’s largest chocolate market, was valued at approximately $22 billion in 2016 and is anticipated to exceed $30 billion by 2021, according to a TechSci Research report from 2016. In response to increasing consumer demand and the challenges of maintaining cocoa yields, chocolate manufacturers are exploring various strategies to enhance sustainability. For instance, Hershey announced a $500 million investment in cocoa sustainability in West Africa this past April, while companies like Nestlé, Lindt, Mars, Mondelez, Cargill, and Barry Callebaut have also significantly increased their sustainability investments and commitments.
Cargill, in particular, has reported success in assisting cocoa farmers in Côte d’Ivoire through effective farming practices. Their Cargill Cocoa Promise initiative led to an impressive average yield increase of 49% in 2016 and 2017. However, even if these corporate initiatives prove successful in the long term, there is a risk that cocoa supply could decline beyond sustainable levels or that prices may rise to a point where chocolate becomes unaffordable for the average consumer. To avoid such unfavorable scenarios, it is likely that efforts to mitigate climate change will intensify to help stabilize the global cocoa supply.
Should such dire outcomes arise, there are potential cocoa substitutes that could emerge if supply diminishes. Research from Brazil and the U.K. revealed that consumers identified a chocolate-like aroma in flour made from roasted jackfruit seeds, which share similar moisture, color, and pH levels with cocoa. With further investment in research and development, additional cocoa alternatives may be discovered by 2050. Nevertheless, given the widespread love for chocolate, it is reasonable to assume that extensive measures will be taken to protect cocoa before seriously considering substitutes.
For those interested in nutritional enhancements, one might also consider exploring options like calcium citrate malate, vitamin D3, and folic acid tablets online, which could complement a balanced diet while the chocolate industry navigates these challenges.