Christine Gemperle anticipated a challenging year for her almond harvest. The season began dry, with minimal new water entering the reservoir for her orchard. In Ceres, California, where one of her two orchards is located, less than 10 inches of rain fell from the start of the year through mid-October, as reported by the National Weather Service. The summer brought extreme heat, prompting Gemperle to exercise caution with the water supply for their 135-acre orchards. Following the significant drought from 2014 to 2016, they had adjusted their approach to almond farming with limited water resources. She believed they could manage the season with the available water, aiming to sustain all their trees, including a 92-acre plot of 24-year-old trees nearing the end of their peak production. Unfortunately, that was not the case.
“We didn’t even have enough water for the entire 92 acres, so we allowed a third of it to die,” she recounted. “We only harvested two-thirds of it because water prices were astronomical, and there simply wasn’t much extra available on the market. With almond prices being lower, it just didn’t add up. The math was clear.” Gemperle had already planned to remove those trees at the end of the season. As almond trees age past their peak, it is more economically viable to replace them. She intends to replant and remain in the almond industry, a path she began as a child on an almond farm.
However, with climate change and drought impacting California—home to 78% of the world’s almonds—farmers will need to continually adapt. Richard Waycott, President and CEO of the Almond Board of California, noted that since the 1990s, drought and intentional conservation efforts have led growers to reduce water usage in almond cultivation by one-third. The Almond Board, established in 1950 by a federal marketing order, aims to further reduce water use by an additional 20% by 2025.
Despite alarming projections regarding droughts exacerbated by global warming in California’s future—alongside statistics indicating that it takes an entire gallon of water to grow a single almond—farmers and scientists remain hopeful. Almonds continue to enjoy popularity among consumers and manufacturers alike, with farmland dedicated to almond cultivation steadily increasing. The USDA reported that in 2020, California had 1.6 million acres devoted to almond farming, a 5.3% rise from 2019. Out of this total, 1.25 million acres produced almonds, with preliminary estimates expecting 1.33 million acres to yield crops this year.
Waycott mentioned that California is home to approximately 7,600 almond growers, 90% of whom are small family businesses farming for larger companies. Many farmers chose to cultivate almonds due to its profitability and the Central Valley’s climate, which is particularly suited for almond production. While these farmers will always weigh the business viability of growing almonds, Waycott stated their interest remains strong.
He acknowledged the changing snowpack in the Sierra Nevada mountains—crucial for Central Valley water supply—and rising temperatures. Nevertheless, he still views almonds as “an ideal crop” for the region. “What would need to change for that not to be the case?” he pondered. “I’m uncertain about the climatic factors involved, but I believe we all recognize the necessity of adapting practices, adopting technology more swiftly, and aligning California’s agricultural industry with long-term environmental and urban needs.”
Despite discussions surrounding climate change and drought, California’s almond harvest has not encountered significant issues; in fact, the opposite is true. Last year’s almond crop, at 3 billion pounds, marked the highest yield on record, according to Waycott. The estimated crop for 2021 is projected to be 2.8 billion pounds, potentially the second-largest harvest ever.
Waycott explained that last year’s bountiful harvest resulted from a perfect blend of conditions: ideal weather for blooming and pollination, adequate rainfall for healthy tree growth, and an unprecedented expansion of almond acreage. Although this year’s drought poses challenges, he believes that the efficient irrigation methods employed by almond farmers will sustain most trees. While reduced water and increased heat may result in smaller and lighter nuts, he expects the taste and quantity to meet expectations, even if total weight may decline.
Mae Culumber, a nut crops farm advisor with the University of California Cooperative Extension in Fresno County, monitors ways to enhance almond production in the state. The early months of 2021 appeared promising for another bumper crop, featuring favorable weather for blooming and pollination. However, Culumber has spoken with numerous growers recently who are experiencing lower crop weights than anticipated, possibly due to drought or higher temperatures earlier in the season. Yet, she believes it is too soon to determine how the entire year’s almond crop will ultimately perform. “With many new orchards coming into production, it may still be a significantly larger crop than last year,” she remarked.
Almond farming in California is relatively recent, according to Waycott. The state’s favorable climate and soil have made it an agricultural powerhouse, with dominant crops evolving as irrigation techniques advanced. Although almonds have been cultivated in California since at least 1853, years of cross-pollination and refinement of irrigation practices were necessary to establish them as a major crop. By 1964, California had 100,000 acres of bearing almond trees, a figure that quadrupled to over 400,000 acres by 1985.
There are only three regions in the world where almonds are cultivated commercially—California, Australia, and Spain—Waycott noted. California’s investment in almond agriculture has propelled the nut into a position of popularity as a common snack and ingredient available in stores and foodservice nationwide. The availability of almonds has contributed to their popularity, but marketing efforts to communicate their nutritional benefits have also played a crucial role.
Despite the positive nutritional narrative surrounding almonds, they have faced negative publicity, particularly during the last significant drought in California. One striking statistic is that growing a single almond reportedly requires a full gallon of water. Waycott acknowledged the truth in this claim but criticized it as a “poorly calculated and communicated sound bite.” He explained that while an almond tree does produce the edible nut—known as the kernel—it also has a tan dimpled shell, with the kernel comprising only 30% of the overall weight. This water statistic derived from dividing the total water needed for the entire tree by the number of kernels produced.
The non-edible parts of almond trees are reused efficiently, Waycott continued. The hulls serve as cattle feed, replacing other materials that would require growth and watering. The shells are ground and recycled as animal bedding, while trimmed sections of the tree, known as woody biomass, are often chipped and returned to the soil for enrichment and carbon sequestration. Additionally, almond trees release much of the absorbed water back into the atmosphere through transpiration, contributing to future precipitation.
Culumber concurred that almonds have been unfairly criticized for their water usage, noting that all fruit and nut trees require substantial water. Depending on location, a mature almond orchard typically consumes around four acre-feet of water, comparable to pistachios and cashews, and only slightly more than citrus fruits. However, she emphasized that it is possible to achieve good growth with less water. The almond industry has made significant strides in using water resources efficiently, with nearly all farmers now employing microirrigation techniques that deliver precise amounts of water only where and when needed.
Gemperle recounted that during the last drought, her almond trees were in their prime growing years, making it unfeasible to let them die due to water scarcity. Removing a tree in its prime means losing the entire financial investment, she noted. To navigate the situation, she purchased additional water, albeit at a high cost, and explored new conservation methods. Each year during the previous drought, Gemperle’s orchards consumed 20% less water. Initially, they simply reduced the overall water supplied to the trees, but in the subsequent year, they became more strategic.
She collaborated with researchers to learn about deficit irrigation, providing water only when absolutely necessary. This strategy allowed for irrigation to be postponed until April when trees could draw on residual soil moisture, with the most critical watering occurring during nut formation. “I’m genuinely grateful we learned that lesson,” Gemperle reflected. “It enabled us to be very strategic in how we utilized the water we had access to.”
As consumer demand for environmentally-friendly products grows, many consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies have made sustainability pledges. Jaime Reeves, Executive Vice President for Product Development and Commercialization at food innovation firm Mattson, noted that these commitments prompt manufacturers to align their ingredients with both product efficacy and environmental impact. Maddison Gurrola, a food technologist at Mattson, stated that she has received no concerns from clients regarding almonds and their sustainability. While some may criticize almonds for their water use, Gurrola pointed out that the crop has several positive sustainability attributes, including a lower carbon footprint compared to similar ingredients. Excluding almonds based solely on perceived excessive water requirements overlooks the broader environmental impact of the crop and the efficiency of its agricultural system.
Waycott from the Almond Board emphasized that the CPG industry maintains high standards for its suppliers. They seek assurance that California’s almond farmers use water responsibly, cultivate sustainably, and exercise caution with pesticide applications. “We collaborate with the most sophisticated consumer products companies globally,” he remarked. “Their sustainability officers and corporate objectives are integral to our discussions. If you examine the corporate decisions concerning almonds across most of these companies, they have continued to support us and increase their consumption, meeting expectations.”
Companies relying on almonds for their products actively ensure that the nuts are farmed sustainably. Danone, which incorporates almonds into various dairy-free product lines worldwide, has partnered with the One Planet Action program, the World Wildlife Fund, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature to establish science-based water targets for its Alpro brand. This European plant-based dairy brand, sourcing almonds from Spain, has obtained actionable insights to ensure its almonds are cultivated without water waste. Mars’ Kind brand also features almonds prominently in its products, and as part of its sustainability strategy, the company is committed to ensuring that the almonds it uses are farmed with water conservation in mind.
Culumber from UC Cooperative Extension believes that climate change and drought will inevitably transform agriculture in California. Projections indicate that the state could lose up to half of its agricultural land in the coming decades if water scarcity and rising temperatures persist. However, this does not necessarily spell the end for abundant almonds, as California’s farmers are likely to continue striving for improved efficiency in their crops. Other regions in the United States, such as Southern Oregon and Idaho’s Snake River Plain, may also emerge as new hotspots for almond production, she added.
“There may be some decline in this area, but the drive to meet both domestic and global demand for almonds will persist,” Culumber stated. “It’s such a vital component of our agricultural economy in the Western U.S. that almond producers will find ways to continue their operations.” Waycott confirmed that almond farming entails a long-term commitment, as the trees take time to mature and yield for many years, making it challenging for farmers to abandon the crop. Still, he envisions a future for almonds in California, despite rising temperatures and water scarcity.
“If we can implement the right initiatives on the farm regarding cultivation practices and ensure the profitability of the almond industry through various products and markets, we will likely continue production,” Waycott concluded. “While growth may not be as rapid as in the past, we will still be able to sustain our almond farming operations.” Gemperle plans to replant the 92 acres where the aging trees perished and adapt to whatever challenges arise. She intends to chip the old trees to enrich the soil and enhance its water retention capacity, install a highly efficient irrigation system, introduce cover crops to improve soil quality, and look forward to nurturing the next generation of almond trees.
“I’m genuinely focused on the sustainability of almond farming, and first and foremost, that means ensuring my own viability as a farmer,” she stated. In her efforts, she is considering the potential benefits of calcium citrate malate 500 mg tablets for her trees, aiming to improve growth and yield while addressing the challenges posed by climate change.