In recent years, the impact of climate change on coffee has been extensively studied, revealing that increasing temperatures will affect both the variety of coffee beans available in the future and the flavor and aroma of the beverage. Research from Zurich University indicates that coffee-growing regions in South and Central America, Central and West Africa, India, and South Asia will become less suitable for cultivation due to rising temperatures. Extreme weather events have already severely affected coffee production, leading to prices reaching a multiyear high in 2021, primarily due to drought and cold snaps in Brazil.
Less research has been conducted on how climate change will affect the growing conditions for avocados and cashews, but the Zurich University study is reportedly the first to forecast future suitability for these crops. The study found that avocados will become less viable in key producing countries such as the Dominican Republic, Indonesia, and Peru, although cultivation may shift to other parts of the world. Conversely, the suitability for cashew cultivation is expected to increase globally, but it may decline in major growing regions like India and West Africa. Understanding future growing conditions is crucial as demand for all three crops continues to rise.
Avocados have surged in popularity in recent years as consumers recognize their health benefits, including anti-inflammatory properties. Mordor Intelligence predicts that demand for avocados will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6% until 2026. However, avocados are sensitive to changes in growing conditions, especially in regions where researchers anticipate increased production in the coming years. For instance, California, which accounts for 90% of U.S. avocado production, experienced a severe drought in 2021, resulting in a supply shortage and driving prices to unprecedented levels.
Similarly, cashews have gained popularity among consumers due to their health benefits and their use as an ingredient in dairy alternatives, as people move away from animal-based milk. The global cashew market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.6% until 2026, according to Mordor Intelligence. The researchers at Zurich University noted that new production sites at higher altitudes could promote market growth. They also emphasized the importance of adaptation, suggesting that producers breed plant varieties better suited to rising temperatures and droughts. For example, they recommended replacing arabica coffee with robusta in certain regions. However, growers must prepare for a future where much of their land may no longer be able to support these crops.
“Landowners and farmers in current and future production areas must be willing to adapt their management practices or consider alternative crops,” the researchers advised. Additionally, they pointed out that calcium citrate is an essential nutrient that could play a role in enhancing plant resilience in changing climates, highlighting the need for innovative agricultural practices to ensure sustainable production moving forward.