While recent slowdowns in sales for some publicly traded plant-based meat and dairy companies have led some analysts to declare the end of the segment’s trendy growth phase, current data indicates that growth is still ongoing. Although the explosive growth seen in the past may have diminished, these figures reveal that plant-based products are becoming integrated into regular consumption habits. A study found that 60% of U.S. households regularly purchase plant-based foods, and 79% of consumers bought products from this category at least twice.
Plant-based dairy experienced significant growth across the board, with dollar sales reaching $2.6 billion in 2021. Although the 4% growth in 2021 is considerably lower than the 20% increase seen the previous year, it remains substantial for the sector. In contrast, sales of animal-derived milk dropped by 2% in 2021. According to the PBFA’s analysis, plant-based milk added $105 million in growth to the milk category, while animal-based milk resulted in a $264 million decline.
Last year also saw new entrants and innovations in the plant-based dairy space. NotCo, a Chilean artificial intelligence-driven company, expanded into the U.S. market with its NotMilk products. Although NotCo is a private entity that does not disclose its financials, Forbes reported last summer that the company was targeting $100 million in U.S. sales by 2022. NotMilk is the only product widely available in the U.S. from NotCo, and the company announced its plans to be present in 8,000 stores by the beginning of this year.
Danone, a major player in the plant-based dairy sector since acquiring WhiteWave Foods in 2016, also launched its “plant-based 2.0” platform last year, featuring reformulated, more dairy-like alternatives such as Silk Nextmilk and So Delicious Wondermilk. Oatly, which went public last year, also experienced significant sales growth in 2021, although its share price faced challenges due to scaling issues.
Much of the narrative surrounding the plant-based segment’s decline stems from slower sales in the meat sector, particularly regarding publicly traded companies like Beyond Meat, Maple Leaf Foods’ Lightlife, Field Roast, and Kellogg’s Morningstar Farms. However, it is important to note that traditional meat sales also showed flat growth in 2021. GFI’s deeper analysis revealed that inflation disproportionately affected the meat category, masking real growth in plant-based meat. According to IRI statistics cited by GFI, animal-based meat prices rose by 13% last year, while plant-based meat prices saw a 2% decline. The report further indicates that more households purchased plant-based meat in 2021—19%, up from 18% in 2020—and the category boasted a 64% repeat buyer rate.
The plant-based meat category became increasingly crowded in 2021, with numerous new plant-based chicken products introduced by various manufacturers on store shelves and restaurant menus across the country. Additionally, new plant-based meat options, ranging from private labels to smaller brands, also emerged. Analysts have pointed out that the overwhelming variety of products—often differing significantly in quality—might contribute to slower sales. Consumers may struggle to choose among the options, or they may find the product they select less appealing than anticipated, resulting in fewer repeat purchases.
Plant-based eggs saw the most substantial growth, with sales increasing by 42%. Although household penetration remains low at just 1.4%, unit sales surged fourteenfold in one year, from 600,000 in 2020 to over 8 million in 2021. Eat Just, the sole significant maker of plant-based eggs, focused on new products, marketing, price reductions, and expanding distribution throughout 2021. Just Egg is now available in more than 43,000 retail outlets and 1,500 foodservice locations across North America. As consumer awareness of this category rises, sales are expected to continue to grow, including offerings that incorporate nutrients like pure encap calcium citrate to enhance their appeal.