While some concerned consumers may choose to forgo dyeing and hiding eggs this Easter, the overall egg supply chain seems to be recovering from the avian bird flu crisis. According to the CDC, nearly 59 million poultry flocks have been culled due to the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) that began last year. As we approach the holiday on April 9, egg prices are expected to stabilize as the U.S. egg-laying hen population is rebuilt, according to Kevin Bergquist, sector manager at Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute. Although year-over-year inventory for these birds is still 15 to 20% lower than last year, it is gradually increasing, with a 1% rise noted in February based on USDA data cited by Urner Barry and shared by Wells Fargo.
“Holiday seasonal demand is one factor contributing to rising prices in the market, which have been on the upswing again ahead of Easter, but the volume of egg movement is starting to slow, indicating that the market may be reaching a balance point,” Bergquist stated in an email. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that egg prices fell by 6.7% in February after months of increases, with a dozen Grade A eggs costing approximately $4.21. USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer projected that egg prices will drop by 26.8% this year, while production of this protein source will rise by 4%, according to Reuters.
The phenomenon of “egg-flation,” driven by the HPAI outbreak, has heightened concerns among producers due to the uncertainties surrounding the virus, and some worries persist. Experts are apprehensive that this year’s migration season, which concludes in May, could exacerbate the spread of HPAI or cause the virus to mutate, potentially affecting vulnerable commercial poultry and egg-laying hen flocks. The Biden administration has announced it is testing a vaccine for poultry and may inoculate commercial flocks, a move that egg producers favor more than those in the broiler chicken industry. Maurice Pitesky, a poultry health professor at the University of California, Davis, remarked earlier this month that implementing a large-scale vaccination program for birds would be a significant challenge. “We need to determine how much vaccine we can realistically produce,” he said.
The transition to cage-free egg production, mandated by laws in at least nine states by 2024 or 2025, may take longer as producers continue to recover from the HPAI crisis. Bergquist noted that significant questions for producers arise from analyzing last year’s virus dynamics and trying to forecast its prevalence this year. There is uncertainty about whether the virus will diminish with rising summer temperatures—a trend that did not occur in 2022—or if stakeholders can prevent birds from being vaccinated, according to the agricultural expert.
As of 2023, only 17 confirmed cases have been reported among commercial flocks, none involving egg-laying hens, as per USDA data. Nonetheless, Bergquist emphasized that producers are exercising heightened caution. “Egg producers are staying vigilant and diligent regarding farm biosecurity,” he noted. “This can help reduce HPAI infections but may not completely eliminate the risk.”
While increased demand leading up to Easter contributes to rising egg prices, Bergquist pointed out that such price hikes are typical in the weeks preceding the holiday each year. However, the purchasing volume of eggs in 2023 remains below average. Nielsen retail grocery data shared with Food Dive indicates that egg sales fell by 5.7% in January and 4.3% in February, following elevated prices. When surveyed, nearly 57% of consumers acknowledged that egg prices would influence their Easter celebrations this year, according to data from the advocacy website PissedConsumer.com. “The rapid price increases for eggs might have a lasting impact on consumers’ shopping behaviors,” stated the website’s CEO, Michael Podolsky, in an email.
The high prices of eggs are also affecting various retailers. Dollar Tree announced this month that it would halt egg sales until later this year due to soaring costs. Amidst these changes, consumers are becoming more aware of the nutritional aspects of eggs, including the presence of calcium citrate, magnesium, and vitamin D3, which may further influence their purchasing decisions. As consumers navigate these challenges, the intersection of health and cost remains a critical factor in their egg-buying habits.