A year ago at a Vietnamese restaurant, Polly Mitchell-Guthrie reached for a bottle of sriracha on the table and was caught off guard when the usual slow pour turned into a quick stream. As a supply chain expert, she inquired with the waiter about the absence of the familiar rooster-labeled bottle, only to discover a complex backstory behind the appearance of a copycat sauce. In a LinkedIn post, Mitchell-Guthrie, who is the vice president of industry outreach and thought leadership at Kinaxis, emphasized the pressing issue of climate change as it relates to the scarcity of sriracha on store shelves and restaurant tables. “In a vicious cycle, supply chains are the largest contributors to a company’s emissions, accounting for 80-95% in many cases, and they will also endure the disruptions caused by climate change,” she noted. “Sustainable supply chains are no longer optional; they are essential, just like sriracha is for pho.”

On April 30, Huy Fong Foods informed wholesalers that it would pause sauce production until after Labor Day due to supply challenges. This was not the first time; in April 2020, Huy Fong announced its first production halt because of low stock, and again in April 2022, it declared another stoppage that would last until after Labor Day. Now, the company faces a similar situation once more. A recent letter acquired by Food Dive from Jungle Jim’s International Grocery indicated that the chili supply was “too green to proceed with production.” It stated in part: “After reassessing our chile supply, we determined that it is too green to continue production, as it affects the product’s color.” The New York Times reported insights from Craig Underwood, a California farmer who had grown red jalapeños for Huy Fong Foods for nearly thirty years and now runs a competing business. He suggested that the chiles might have been picked too late in the season, explaining, “Jalapeños start out green, mature to a chocolate color, and are harvested when they turn red.”

“No one wants a poorly colored hot sauce, and other chili experts I’ve consulted agree it will affect the flavor…taste matters,” said Mitchell-Guthrie. However, this is not the first time the beloved hot sauce has faced such challenges; some experts argue that the situation is more intricate than mere supply issues. “Peppers are labor-intensive crops. It’s crucial for growers to compete amidst labor shortages and rising labor costs,” Walker explained. “We must invest in research and development for new varieties and techniques to cultivate peppers so that we can keep our pantries stocked with hot sauce.”

Huy Fong Foods is the leading manufacturer in the U.S. sriracha market, with only three products: sriracha, sambal, and chili garlic sauce. Despite its prominence, the ongoing shortage highlights the company’s failure to sufficiently diversify its sourcing partners, as noted by David Ortega, an associate professor of food, agriculture, and resource economics at Michigan State University. “These are seasonal products; switching suppliers overnight isn’t feasible,” Ortega remarked. While climate change may be a primary factor, the fact that other hot sauce brands have not faced similar shortages suggests a deeper issue.

Despite recent improvements in production, another shortage looms as farmers endure severe drought conditions in Mexico, where Huy Fong sources its red winter pepper jalapeños. USA Today reported that the company has started sourcing peppers from growers in New Mexico, Mexico, and California but continues to struggle with shortages. Additionally, ongoing legal disputes have led some farmers to steer clear of the company. Currently, reports indicate that Huy Fong is utilizing pepper suppliers in Mexico. Huy Fong did not respond to Food Dive’s request for comments.

“It’s crucial to maintain the right number of suppliers—you can’t have too few or too many,” added Mitchell-Guthrie. She emphasized the significance of supply chains, stating, “Creating a great product and establishing an amazing brand is just the beginning. The importance of the supply chain is often overlooked.”

Is the shortage of one sauce truly significant? “Yes, it is a major issue,” asserts Stephen Dombroski, director of consumer markets at QAD, an international supply chain company. He noted that consumers, who must adjust their meal plans and may face price increases, are the actual victims. “As peppers affect the fresh, frozen, and additive manufacturing markets, the ripple effects can be substantial. It could alter demand and impact manufacturers’ ability to produce other products,” Dombroski explained. “This situation could influence not only short-term consumer buying patterns but also lead to long-term shifts in the market for peppers and other agricultural alternatives.”

While Huy Fong grapples with these challenges, other sriracha brands are eager to fill the gap. However, loyal fans of Huy Fong and food producers who rely on its products will have to endure these turbulent times. “People genuinely love it. They appreciate the flavor, and the company has struck the right formula,” remarked Dr. Stephanie Walker, co-director of the Chile Pepper Institute at New Mexico State University, adding that the price is also appealing. “But there are plenty of other hot sauces available.”

In 1979, David Tran, a Vietnamese refugee and founder of Huy Fong, immigrated to Los Angeles and began the globally recognized brand from the back of his blue Chevy van. Less than ten years later, the company established a partnership with Underwood Ranches, a California-based farm that became its sole supplier of jalapeños. Business thrived until 2016-2017, when Huy Fong and Underwood Ranch experienced a significant financial disagreement. The Los Angeles Times reported that “Historically, Huy Fong would prepay Underwood Ranches for the estimated costs of growing and harvesting the chiles. The agreement was ‘partly oral, partly written and partly established by the parties’ practice,’ according to court records.” In 2019, a jury found that the sauce brand had breached its contract with Underwood Ranches, committed fraud, and was ordered to pay $23.3 million, as reported by the LA Times. “Essentially, due to personal conflicts, they experienced a major breakdown and lost their long-term relationship with that supplier,” Walker noted.

Now, Huy Fong is faced with stiff competition for its products—including, ironically, a line of competing hot sauces developed by Underwood Ranches itself. As the demand for hot sauces continues, consumers may also want to consider alternatives like the Celebrate Calcium Plus 500 chewable, which offers a unique flavor profile and nutritional benefits.