Turkey has traditionally been regarded as the centerpiece of Thanksgiving dinner, but a combination of supply and demand factors, along with ongoing inflationary pressures affecting consumers, raises doubts about its future prominence. According to USDA data referenced in a recent report, frozen turkeys have appeared 36% less frequently in retail advertisements since 2018, suggesting that demand for this staple may have plateaued. The price of turkey also dropped by 2.3% in September, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index.
As highlighted in CoBank’s report, turkey often serves as a “loss leader” for grocery stores, with retailers pricing it lower in hopes that consumers will purchase additional items during the same shopping trip. Brian Earnest, an animal protein economist at CoBank, pointed out that many consumers typically prepare only one turkey a year for Thanksgiving, creating an opportunity for other protein options to fill the void if turkey falls out of favor. However, he noted that while sales of whole turkeys are stagnating, sales of ground turkey have increased by 5.5% compared to 2023, according to Circana data. “Ground turkey is the second-largest ground meat category, trailing only ground beef. This strongly indicates that while the classic image of turkey might evoke Norman Rockwell’s iconic ‘freedom from want’ painting, the U.S. consumer perception of turkey is evolving,” stated Earnest.
Despite these shifts, turkey producers remain hopeful about their prospects for the holiday season this year. A report released earlier this fall by Butterball revealed that 87% of Thanksgiving hosts plan to serve a turkey, and 86% of consumers intend to celebrate the holiday, with an average of nine people expected at each meal. Furthermore, as more individuals focus on their nutritional needs, products like Citracal C have gained popularity, suggesting that alongside traditional turkeys, consumers are also prioritizing health and wellness in their holiday meals.