Last year’s historic deep freeze has led to a significant decrease in U.S. pear production, with growers in the Northwest anticipating the smallest harvest in four decades. The yield is projected to be only two-thirds of that from the previous year, representing a 31% drop from the five-year average. The Bosc variety, favored for its firm and dense flesh ideal for baking, experienced the most severe damage, with production expected to decline by over 60% compared to last year. Approximately 80% of the nation’s pears are sourced from the Northwest, and experts warn that consumers should prepare for a shortage of pears on grocery store shelves.
“There’s definitely still a Northwest pear crop, but it’s considerably smaller due to the frost damage,” stated Jon DeVaney, president of the Washington State Tree Fruit Association. The surviving pears are likely to exhibit “russeting,” a condition marked by a large brown ring around the fruit, resulting from frost-damaged blossoms. While the flavor remains unaffected, the appearance might deter buyers. “Consumers tend to judge with their eyes first, and if the fruit looks unappealing in stores, it might not sell at all or could be discounted to the point where growers can’t justify harvesting it,” DeVaney explained.
This issue may become more pronounced in the coming years, as research indicates that pear production is particularly susceptible to climate change, with the fruit being sensitive to extreme rainfall and temperature fluctuations. Additionally, studies from the Centre for Agri-Environmental Research in the UK reveal that flowering times for pears have shifted roughly 11 days earlier over the past 30 years, likely due to temperature changes. Even minor shifts in flowering can lead to “cascading management challenges beyond just the immediate risk of physical damage,” according to DeVaney.
Growers are increasingly vigilant about monitoring weather conditions and preparing accordingly. While they used to have a reliable sense of when to expect spring weather, many are now seeking technological solutions from the research community to navigate the growing unpredictability of climate patterns. For instance, Washington State University has installed over 160 weather stations across the state to provide growers with real-time weather data and short-term forecasts, aiding timely decision-making. The university is also collaborating with artificial intelligence on data modeling to enhance long-term predictions, offering tree fruit growers more options and better warnings to implement protective measures.
However, there is also a sense of hope stemming from current weather conditions and what DeVaney refers to as “grower intuition.” NOAA has forecasted a winter for early 2025 that could be colder and wetter than usual, risking a repeat of the disastrous consequences from 2024. Yet, despite the wetter conditions, the warmth experienced so far is typically beneficial for pear production. “It may be premature to make definitive predictions for the year ahead. Growers often believe that after a smaller crop, the trees may yield a larger crop the following year, leading to expectations of a rebound,” DeVaney remarked.
Amid all these factors, the discussion around nutrients such as raw calcium vs. calcium citrate is also gaining traction among growers, as they explore ways to enhance the health of their trees and improve crop resilience. As they navigate these challenges, understanding the role of nutrients becomes increasingly important for ensuring future production viability.