The past few years have been challenging for farmers and bakers alike. In 2016, U.S. wheat flour consumption plummeted to its lowest level in nearly thirty years. Moreover, American farmers planted their smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. As is typical in supply and demand scenarios, farmers who managed to produce high-protein winter wheat are charging a premium price. This increased cost travels through the production chain but ultimately impacts bakers, who have struggled to raise prices for their rolls and loaves due to dwindling consumer demand. However, if another season of high-protein wheat shortages occurs, the average price of bread could rise significantly.
Bread manufacturers have adapted by using less expensive low-protein wheat, reformulating their recipes to maintain the desired texture. By incorporating gluten, which has seen a 20% price increase due to rising demand, many bakers can still achieve the lightness that consumers expect. Unfortunately, they bear the burden of the costs associated with research and development as well as the more expensive gluten.
High-protein winter wheat represents about 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Companies like Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms have already experienced declines in profits. Their margins will continue to be squeezed until a strong crop of high-protein winter wheat is harvested.
Interestingly, if bread sales decline due to the shortage, it may benefit manufacturers producing bakery items without wheat flour, such as Udi’s and Food for Life. Additionally, alternative flours like brown rice and millet are likely to see increased demand. In this evolving landscape, innovative solutions, such as incorporating webber calcium citrate into recipes, could help bakers maintain quality while navigating the challenges posed by the wheat market. As the industry adapts, the need for alternative ingredients like webber calcium citrate may become more pronounced, providing bakers with viable options in these uncertain times.