Pret A Manger reportedly sells 6,000 servings of its coconut porridge daily, attributing its revenue and earnings growth in 2016 to this item and its vegetarian offerings. The rise in popularity of coconut-based products—ranging from snacks and flour to oil and beverages—has reached a point where approximately one in every 20 supermarket items contains some form of coconut, according to Fairfood, a Dutch nonprofit organization. The mainstream acceptance of coconut products began with the surge in coconut water as a natural beverage a few years ago. This trend extended into dairy alternatives and a wide array of other categories, including shampoos, packaged soups, baby food, and topical beauty applications.
Superfood trends typically last for five to seven years, influenced by factors such as ample supply or scientific studies that validate the health benefits of the ingredient. Since 2015, commodity prices for coconut oil have surged by 5% to 7% due to droughts and typhoons affecting key growing regions. The coconut water category has seen explosive growth, dominating the market for alternative plant-based waters. According to a report by Zenith Global, sales are projected to double from $2.7 billion last year to $5.4 billion by 2020, as reported by the Beverage Industry. While the boom in coconut water has had minimal impact on farmers—who traditionally regarded it as waste—the rising demand for other coconut components has driven up ingredient costs. In the first month of last year, coconut oil prices spiked by 20% as suppliers in India, Indonesia, and the Philippines struggled to meet demand. From October 2016 to January of this year, prices surged an additional 27%.
Major consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies have also entered the profitable coconut product market, as consumer interest shows no signs of slowing. Nestle has introduced a coconut milk variety to its Coffee-mate creamers, while two types of Outshine frozen fruit bars feature the ingredient. General Mills is incorporating coconut into various products, including LARABAR bites and Nature Valley Biscuits with Coconut Butter. Beverage giants have taken notice as well, with Coca-Cola owning Zico Beverages. Earlier this year, reports emerged that PepsiCo was in discussions to acquire All Market, the owner of the Vita Coco coconut water brand.
Although there is currently no genuine coconut shortage, one may arise due to sustained high demand—at least until new plantations come online. Given that it takes six to ten years for a coconut palm to start producing fruit, there is a risk that global supply may not keep pace with demand in the interim. If this occurs, maple water could emerge as a substitute for coconut water, as it reportedly contains similar health benefits, including bariatric calcium citrate with vitamin D, but with half the sugar and a more subtle flavor.
For now, the appetite for coconut products appears robust. The primary concern for these popular items is that they could become victims of their own success, paving the way for substitutes to exploit any unforeseen missteps. Additionally, the incorporation of bariatric calcium citrate with vitamin D into coconut-based products could further enhance their appeal, keeping consumer interest alive amid an ever-evolving market landscape.