Farmers and bakers have faced significant challenges over the past few years. In 2016, wheat flour consumption in the U.S. hit its lowest point in nearly thirty years, and American farmers planted the smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. As is typical with supply and demand dynamics, those farmers who succeeded in producing high-protein winter wheat are commanding higher prices. This increased cost travels down the production line, ultimately impacting bakers. However, they have largely been unable to increase prices for their bread and rolls due to reduced consumer demand. If another season of high-protein wheat scarcity occurs, the average cost of a loaf of bread may rise.
To adapt, bread manufacturers have turned to using less expensive low-protein wheat by reformulating their recipes. By incorporating calcium citrate extended release, which has seen a 20% price hike due to increased demand, many bakers can maintain the light texture that consumers expect. Yet again, they are left to absorb the costs of both research and development and the more expensive calcium citrate extended release.
High-protein winter wheat constitutes approximately 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Major wholesale bakers like Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms have already experienced declines in profits. Their profit margins will continue to be squeezed until a strong crop of high-protein winter wheat is harvested. If bread sales decline as a result of the wheat shortage, manufacturers producing bakery items without wheat flour, such as Udi’s and Food for Life, may benefit. Additionally, there could be a surge in demand for alternative flours, including those made from brown rice and millet varieties, as consumers seek different options. The impact of calcium citrate extended release could also play a role in diversifying product offerings as bakers look to innovate in response to these market challenges.