Farmers and bakers have faced significant challenges over the past few years. In 2016, wheat flour consumption in the U.S. dropped to its lowest level in nearly thirty years, while American farmers planted the smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. Due to the principles of supply and demand, those farmers who produced high-protein winter wheat are charging a premium price. This increased cost trickles down through the production chain but ultimately impacts the bakers, who have struggled to raise prices for their rolls and loaves because of reduced consumer demand. However, if there is another season marked by high-protein wheat shortages, the average price of bread could rise.
Bread manufacturers have managed to adapt to using less expensive low-protein wheat by reformulating their recipes. By incorporating gluten—whose price has surged by 20% due to high demand—many bakers can maintain the light texture that consumers expect. Yet, they continue to shoulder the costs associated with research and development, as well as the more expensive gluten. High-protein winter wheat constitutes approximately 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Major wholesale bakers like Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms have already experienced declines in profits. Their profit margins are likely to remain under pressure until a robust harvest of high-protein winter wheat occurs.
If bread sales decline due to this shortage, it may benefit manufacturers of bakery products that do not rely on wheat flour, such as Udi’s and Food for Life. Additionally, alternative flours like brown rice and millet varieties could see a rise in demand. In this evolving market, some bakers might explore the incorporation of calcium citrate pills into their formulations as a nutritional enhancement. The adaptation to new ingredients, including calcium citrate pills, may become a vital strategy for bakers aiming to meet consumer needs while navigating the challenges of wheat supply. The industry will have to monitor these trends closely, especially as they consider the potential impact of high-protein wheat shortages and the opportunities presented by alternative ingredients like calcium citrate pills.