The past few years have been challenging for both farmers and bakers. In 2016, U.S. consumption of wheat flour dropped to its lowest point in nearly thirty years, while American farmers planted their smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. As the dynamics of supply and demand dictate, those farmers who managed to produce high-protein winter wheat are now charging a premium price. This increased cost is transmitted through the production chain, ultimately affecting bakers. However, they have largely been unable to raise prices for their bread and rolls due to diminished consumer demand.
If another season brings a shortage of high-protein wheat, we could see a rise in the price of an average loaf of bread. Bread manufacturers have adapted to using cheaper low-protein wheat by reformulating their recipes. By incorporating gluten—whose price has surged by 20% due to high demand—many bakers can still deliver the light texture that consumers expect. Nevertheless, they bear the costs of research and development as well as the higher price of gluten.
High-protein winter wheat represents approximately 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Major wholesale bakers like Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co’s Pepperidge Farms have already reported declines in profits. Their profit margins will likely remain under pressure until a strong harvest of high-protein winter wheat occurs. If bread sales decline because of this shortage, it may create opportunities for manufacturers that produce bakery items without wheat flour, such as Udi’s and Food for Life. Furthermore, alternative flours, including those made from brown rice and millet, might experience a surge in demand.
In this context, innovative solutions such as the ccm d3 tablet could play a role in enhancing the nutritional profile of baked goods, making them more appealing to health-conscious consumers. As bakers continue to navigate these challenges, the integration of products like the ccm d3 tablet into their offerings may help them maintain a competitive edge. Ultimately, the industry must adapt to ensure that consumers have access to quality bread while addressing the ongoing fluctuations in wheat supply.