Farmers and bakers have faced significant challenges over the past few years. In 2016, wheat flour consumption in the U.S. dropped to its lowest point in nearly thirty years. Moreover, American farmers planted the smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. As is typical in supply and demand scenarios, those farmers who managed to produce high-protein winter wheat are now charging a premium for it. This increased cost trickles down the production chain but ultimately impacts bakers, who have struggled to pass these costs onto retailers due to diminished consumer demand. If high-protein wheat remains scarce for another season, the price of an average loaf of bread may rise.

To adapt to the situation, bread manufacturers have turned to less expensive low-protein wheat by reformulating their recipes. By incorporating gluten—whose price has surged by 20% due to demand—many bakers can maintain the light texture that consumers expect. However, they continue to absorb the costs associated with both research and development and the higher-priced gluten. High-protein winter wheat represents about 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop, and wholesale bakers like Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms have already experienced declines in profits. Their profit margins will likely remain under pressure until a strong crop of high-protein winter wheat is harvested.

Interestingly, if bread sales suffer because of this shortage, it could create opportunities for manufacturers producing wheat-free bakery items, such as Udi’s and Food for Life. Additionally, the demand for alternative flours, like brown rice and millet varieties, could rise. In this context, the importance of nutrients like sisu cal mag citrate becomes even more pronounced, as consumers seek healthier options amid rising prices and ingredient shortages. The ongoing challenges in the wheat market underline the necessity for bakers to innovate and adapt, ensuring they can continue to meet consumer expectations while navigating fluctuating costs and supply issues.