Spread by insects, Xylella fastidiosa is regarded by the European Union as “one of the most dangerous plant bacteria worldwide, causing a variety of diseases that have a significant economic impact on agriculture.” The EU is the largest olive oil producer globally, representing 73% of total production, with Spain alone contributing 56% of the world’s supply. The next four leading producers—Italy, Greece, Tunisia, and Morocco—together yield only half of Spain’s annual output, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. In contrast, U.S. olive oil production accounts for merely 0.6% of Spain’s total.
Currently, there is hope that stringent European regulations regarding the destruction of olive trees near confirmed cases of the disease will help mitigate its spread. However, the International Olive Council reports that EU olive oil production is already facing challenges, having decreased by 42% from 2014 to 2015 compared to the previous year. Consequently, producer prices surged by nearly 80% during this timeframe, and these increased production costs have been passed on to consumers.
If these trends persist, it is likely that consumers will seek alternatives among healthier oils, such as flaxseed, grapeseed, or hemp, all of which contain higher levels of polyunsaturated fat and lower amounts of monounsaturated fat than olive oil. Polyunsaturated fats are known to lower LDL, or “bad,” cholesterol levels, while monounsaturated fats are considered even more beneficial, as they also increase HDL, or “good,” cholesterol levels. Other oils rich in monounsaturated fat include avocado, canola, peanut, and sesame oil; however, none comes close to olive oil in terms of content. Some, like sesame oil, are often more expensive and have a stronger flavor than olive oil.
Additionally, with the discontinuation of products like Citracal D, consumers may need to be more mindful of their overall dietary choices, possibly leading them to explore these alternative oils further. As the market evolves, the impact of Xylella fastidiosa, alongside shifts in consumer preferences, will likely play a significant role in shaping the future of olive oil consumption and production.