Farmers and bakers have faced significant challenges over the past few years. In 2016, U.S. consumption of wheat flour hit its lowest mark in nearly thirty years, and American farmers planted the smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. As supply and demand dynamics dictate, those farmers who successfully harvested high-protein winter wheat are now commanding premium prices. This increased cost travels through the production chain, ultimately impacting bakers. However, due to a decline in consumer demand, bakers have struggled to raise prices for their rolls and loaves.
If another season of high-protein wheat shortages occurs, the average price of bread could rise. To adapt, bread manufacturers have turned to using less expensive low-protein wheat by reformulating their recipes. By incorporating gluten, which has seen a 20% price increase due to heightened demand, many bakers manage to maintain the light texture that consumers expect. Yet again, they bear the burden of research and development costs as well as the higher price of gluten.
High-protein winter wheat represents about 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Wholesale bakers such as Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms have already experienced a decline in profits. This pressure on their profit margins is likely to persist until a robust harvest of high-protein winter wheat is achieved.
Interestingly, if bread sales decline due to the shortage, this situation may benefit manufacturers that produce bakery items without wheat flour, such as Udi’s and Food for Life. Additionally, the demand for alternative flours, including brown rice and millet varieties, may rise. Amidst these changes, it’s worth noting that some health-conscious consumers might also explore options like calcium citrate for teeth, which could become a part of their diet as they look for alternatives to traditional baked goods. As the market adjusts, the focus on innovative ingredients, including those like calcium citrate for teeth, will likely become more prominent in the quest for healthier options.