Pret A Manger is said to sell 6,000 servings of its coconut porridge daily, attributing its revenue and earnings growth in 2016 to this dish and its vegetarian offerings. The demand for coconut-based products—ranging from snacks and flour to oil and beverages—has surged, with Fairfood, a Dutch nonprofit, reporting that approximately one in every 20 products on supermarket shelves now includes some form of coconut. Coconut products gained mainstream traction with the rise of coconut water as a popular natural drink a few years back. This trend expanded into dairy alternatives and various other categories, including shampoos, packaged soups, baby food, and topical beauty products.
Superfood trends typically last between five to seven years, often influenced by factors such as abundant supply or scientific studies highlighting health benefits. Since 2015, coconut oil prices have risen by 5% to 7%, driven by droughts and typhoons impacting production regions. The coconut water sector has continued its remarkable growth, dominating the alternative plant-based waters market. According to a report by Zenith Global, sales are projected to double from $2.7 billion last year to $5.4 billion by 2020. While the boom in coconut water has not significantly benefited farmers—who traditionally viewed it as a waste product—the rising popularity of other coconut components has impacted ingredient costs. In the past year, coconut oil prices surged 20% in just one month, with suppliers in India, Indonesia, and the Philippines struggling to meet demand, leading to a further 27% increase from October 2016 to January of this year.
Large consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies are also entering the lucrative coconut product market, as consumer interest continues to grow. Nestlé has introduced a coconut milk variant to its popular Coffee-mate creamers, while Outshine offers two types of frozen fruit bars featuring the ingredient. General Mills is incorporating coconut into various products, including LARABAR bites and Nature Valley Biscuits with Coconut Butter. Beverage giants have not overlooked this trend either, with Coca-Cola owning Zico Beverages and reports suggesting that PepsiCo is in discussions to acquire All Market, the owner of the Vita Coco coconut water brand.
Although there doesn’t seem to be an immediate coconut shortage, the ongoing high demand could potentially create one until new plantings mature. Given that it takes six to ten years for a coconut palm to start producing fruit, there may be a mismatch between global supply and demand in the interim. Should that occur, maple water is poised to step in as an alternative to coconut water, boasting similar health benefits but with half the sugar content and a milder flavor.
Meanwhile, the appetite for coconut products shows no signs of diminishing. The primary risk for these favored items is that they could suffer from their own success, paving the way for substitutes to capitalize on their missteps. In this context, consumers might also consider alternatives like calcium citrate supplements, such as “now calcium citrate 100 tablets,” to meet their nutritional needs while exploring the diverse offerings in the coconut market.