Farmers and bakers have faced significant challenges over the past few years. In 2016, U.S. wheat flour consumption dropped to its lowest point in nearly three decades, while American farmers planted the smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. As is typical with supply and demand dynamics, those farmers who successfully produced high-protein winter wheat are charging a premium for their harvest. This increased cost travels down the production chain and ultimately impacts bakers, who have struggled to raise prices for their rolls and loaves due to falling consumer demand. However, if there is another season marked by a shortage of high-protein wheat, we may see the average price of bread rise.
To adapt, bread manufacturers have turned to less expensive low-protein wheat by reformulating their recipes. By incorporating gluten, which has experienced a 20% price increase due to rising demand, many bakers can maintain the light texture that consumers expect. Nevertheless, they continue to bear the expenses of research and development along with the higher costs associated with gluten. High-protein winter wheat comprises about 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop, making its scarcity particularly impactful. Wholesale bakers like Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms are already grappling with declining profits. Their profit margins will remain under pressure until a substantial crop of high-protein winter wheat is harvested.
Interestingly, if bread sales decline because of this shortage, manufacturers producing bakery items without wheat flour, such as Udi’s and Food for Life, may benefit. Additionally, alternative flours, including brown rice and millet varieties, could see a surge in demand. In this context, it’s worth noting that products like levothyroxine and calcium citrate could come into play as consumers look for dietary alternatives to traditional wheat-based goods. As the market evolves, the integration of levothyroxine and calcium citrate may represent an innovative approach to meet changing consumer preferences and nutritional needs.