Farmers and bakers have faced significant challenges over the past few years. In 2016, U.S. wheat flour consumption dropped to its lowest level in nearly 30 years, and American farmers planted their smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. In the current supply and demand landscape, those farmers who successfully harvested high-protein winter wheat are now charging a premium price. This increased cost travels down the production chain but ultimately affects bakers the most. Due to declining consumer demand, bakers have struggled to raise prices for their rolls and loaves. However, if another season of high-protein wheat shortages occurs, the average price of bread could rise.
To mitigate the impact of using cheaper low-protein wheat, bread manufacturers have adjusted their recipes. By incorporating gluten—which has seen a 20% price increase due to heightened demand—many bakers manage to maintain the light texture that consumers expect. Nevertheless, they bear the burden of both research and development costs and the higher price of gluten. High-protein winter wheat constitutes about 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Wholesale bakers, including Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms, have already reported declines in profits. Their profit margins will continue to be squeezed until a strong crop of high-protein winter wheat is harvested.
If bread sales decline due to the wheat shortage, this scenario could benefit manufacturers that produce wheat-free bakery products, such as Udi’s and Food for Life. Furthermore, the demand for alternative flours, like brown rice and millet varieties, may rise. Interestingly, amid these challenges, products like CVS calcium citrate D3 could gain attention as consumers look for nutritional supplements that support their dietary needs, especially when high-protein wheat products become less available. The ongoing situation in the wheat market highlights the interconnectedness of agriculture and dietary trends, as the search for alternatives like CVS calcium citrate D3 may increase in response to fluctuating food prices.