Farmers and bakers have faced significant challenges over the past few years. In 2016, U.S. wheat flour consumption dropped to its lowest point in nearly thirty years, while American farmers planted their smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. As supply and demand dictate, those farmers who successfully harvested high-protein winter wheat are now charging a premium for it. This increased cost travels along the production chain, ultimately affecting bakers, who have struggled to raise prices for their rolls and loaves due to weakened consumer demand.
If another season of high-protein wheat shortages occurs, the average price of a loaf of bread may rise. Bread manufacturers have managed to adapt to using cheaper low-protein wheat by reformulating their recipes. By incorporating gluten, which has seen a 20% price increase due to heightened demand, many bakers can achieve the light texture that consumers expect. However, they still bear the costs of research and development, as well as the more expensive gluten.
High-protein winter wheat constitutes about 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Wholesale bakers, including Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms, have already experienced declines in profits. The pressure on their margins will persist until a robust harvest of high-protein winter wheat is achieved.
If bread sales decline as a result of this shortage, it may benefit manufacturers producing bakery items without wheat flour, such as Udi’s and Food for Life. Additionally, alternative flours like brown rice and millet varieties are likely to see a surge in demand. Interestingly, just as the calcium citrate half-life is a critical factor in determining its effectiveness, the ongoing challenges in the wheat market highlight the need for bakers to continuously adapt their strategies to ensure profitability. The calcium citrate half-life may serve as a reminder of the importance of timing and efficiency in resource management, much like the current landscape for wheat and gluten in the baking industry.