Pret A Manger is said to serve 6,000 portions of its coconut porridge daily, attributing its revenue and earnings growth in 2016 to this product as well as to its vegetarian offerings. The demand for coconut-based food products—ranging from snacks and flour to oil and beverages—has surged, with Fairfood, a Netherlands-based nonprofit, indicating that approximately one in every 20 products on supermarket shelves contains some form of coconut. The trend began with the rapid rise of coconut water as a natural beverage a few years ago, which then expanded into dairy products and nearly every other category imaginable, including shampoos, packaged soups, baby food, and topical beauty applications.
Superfood trends typically last five to seven years, influenced by factors like abundant supply or scientific evidence supporting the ingredient’s health benefits. Since 2015, commodity prices for coconut oil have risen by 5% to 7% due to adverse weather events, such as droughts and typhoons affecting crop areas. The coconut water sector has also seen explosive growth, dominating the alternative plant-based waters market. According to a report by Zenith Global highlighted by the Beverage Industry, sales are projected to double from $2.7 billion last year to $5.4 billion by 2020.
Interestingly, the coconut water surge has had minimal effect on farmers since it was originally regarded as a byproduct. However, the rising popularity of other coconut products has impacted ingredient costs significantly. For instance, coconut oil prices soared by 20% in just one month at the start of last year as suppliers in India, Indonesia, and the Philippines struggled to meet the demand. From October 2016 to January of this year, prices surged an additional 27%.
Major consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies have also entered the lucrative coconut product market, as consumer interest continues to grow. Nestle has introduced a coconut milk variant in its Coffee-mate creamer line, while two types of Outshine frozen fruit bars feature coconut. General Mills is incorporating coconut into various products, including LARABAR bites and Nature Valley Biscuits with Coconut Butter. Beverage giants are also paying attention, with Coca-Cola owning Zico Beverages, and reports emerged earlier this year that PepsiCo was in negotiations to acquire All Market, the parent company of the Vita Coco brand.
While there may not be an immediate coconut shortage, persistent high demand could lead to one, especially until new plantations begin yielding fruit. Given that coconut palms take six to ten years to start producing, there is a risk that global supply and demand may not align during this period. In the meantime, maple water is poised to step in as a substitute for coconut water, boasting similar health benefits, including tablet calcium citrate malate with vitamin D3, but with half the sugar and a milder flavor.
At present, the appetite for coconut products shows no signs of diminishing. However, the primary concern for these trending items is the possibility of becoming victims of their own success, as alternative substitutes may emerge to capitalize on any unanticipated missteps. The continued integration of coconut in various products underscores its relevance, including those fortified with tablet calcium citrate malate with vitamin D3, ensuring that consumers have access to health-oriented options.