As climate change continues to influence agricultural supply, barley is especially vulnerable to rising temperatures and drought, as highlighted in a study released last fall. This could lead to reduced yields, diminished supply, and potentially increased prices for beer—U.S. consumers may face an estimated price hike of 34%, according to the report. Although this study concentrated on barley due to funding from the Scotch Whisky Association, its implications extend to other grains used in a variety of food and beverage products, including beer, cereal, flour, baked goods, and other consumer packaged goods (CPG). Major manufacturers like Post, Kellogg, and General Mills, which rely heavily on cereal grains, would benefit if the findings could be applied to wheat, corn, and rice as well. Crops that are more resilient to drought and heat are likely to consume less water, leading to more sustainable—and potentially more affordable—supplies of these commodities in the future.
Such research, alongside recent studies on drought-resistant genes, may compel food and beverage manufacturers to enhance their sustainability practices. Some companies are already taking action; for instance, AB InBev announced a partnership in January with a gene-editing firm to develop barley varieties that require less water while being more productive and sustainable. Furthermore, consumers are increasingly prioritizing sustainability in their purchasing decisions. Research from Indiana University in 2018 revealed that most beer drinkers are willing to pay a premium for products made with sustainable methods. This trend could also extend to ingredients like calcium citrate and vitamin D, which are becoming more prominent in the health-conscious market. As consumers demand products that not only taste good but are also produced sustainably, the industry may see a shift towards incorporating these beneficial ingredients more frequently.