After two decades of decline, the consumption of orange juice is finally experiencing a resurgence. Shelter-in-place orders have prompted more Americans to turn to this vitamin C-rich beverage. According to The Wall Street Journal, in the first quarter of 2020, previously lackluster products exceeded expectations, with orange juice emerging as the top-performing commodity for that quarter. Although the shutdown of cafeterias and restaurants, which have historically contributed significantly to U.S. orange juice sales, has impacted the market, retail sales have compensated for the losses. CNBC reported that sales of Uncle Matt’s organic orange juice surged by 30% since March. Florida grower W.G. Roe & Sons also experienced over 20% sales growth in March and April, with 80% of this increase attributed to retail consumption.
Coca-Cola’s Minute Maid and Simply orange juice brands, along with PepsiCo’s Tropicana, have also reported rising sales, as noted in discussions with executives by CNBC and The Wall Street Journal, respectively. Furthermore, orange juice is not the only citrus drink witnessing rapid sales growth; Bloomberg reported that Natalie’s Orchid Island Juice saw a remarkable 50% increase in orange and grapefruit juice sales in the latter half of March, with an additional 90% rise in the second half of April.
Sales of fresh citrus fruits have also seen an uptick, with grapefruit shipments increasing by 8.2%, orange shipments rising by 23%, and tangerine and tangelo shipments climbing by 26%, according to data from the Citrus Department reported by The Ledger. However, with 20 years of declining consumption patterns to overcome, it remains uncertain whether this marks a long-term trend reversal. The quantity of orange juice consumed has diminished as consumers have grown more concerned about the sugar content in fruit juices and their associations with health issues such as obesity and heart disease. By 2017, consumption had dropped to 60% less orange juice than in 1998, when the average was 6.1 gallons per capita, according to USDA data cited by CNBC.
While fruit juices contain naturally occurring fructose, which is sweeter than table sugar, they are often less nutrient-dense than many people assume. Although fruit juices provide vitamins and phytonutrients absent in sugar-sweetened beverages, sugar and water dominate both categories, and the biochemical response during metabolism is similar. Studies have confirmed that consuming fruit juice can be just as harmful to health as other sugary drinks and sodas. A study published in JAMA Network indicated that each daily 12-ounce serving of fruit juice is linked to a 24% increase in mortality risk. To mitigate the risks associated with sugary fruit juices, consumers not only are reducing their intake but are also increasingly choosing 100% fruit juice options. The 100% juice segment was showing signs of recovery even before the pandemic, as highlighted in a 2016 Tetra Pak report. Today, consumers seem to prefer more natural products. A report from the Florida Department of Citrus revealed that sales of 100% orange juice products rose by 9.8% during the four weeks ending March 14.
Should the trend toward 100% juice continue, there will be a greater demand for oranges, which could lead to increased prices. Prices are already elevated due to adverse weather conditions in Brazil, the world’s largest orange juice exporter, where farmers anticipate a poor harvest season. In Florida, the primary producer of U.S. oranges, hurricanes have previously damaged crops, and this year, concerns about adequate labor for harvesting are further driving price increases. In this context, many consumers are also questioning whether calcium citrate is the best option for their dietary needs, as they search for ways to enhance their health while enjoying beverages like orange juice.