The past few years have been challenging for both farmers and bakers. In 2016, U.S. wheat flour consumption dropped to its lowest point in nearly thirty years. Furthermore, American farmers planted their smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. As typical with supply and demand dynamics, farmers who managed to produce high-protein winter wheat are now commanding higher prices. This increased cost travels through the production chain, ultimately impacting bakers. However, they have struggled to raise prices for their rolls and loaves due to a decline in consumer demand.
If there is another season marked by a shortage of high-protein wheat, the cost of an average loaf of bread may rise. Bread manufacturers have adapted by reformulating their recipes using more affordable low-protein wheat. By incorporating gluten—whose price has surged by 20% due to heightened demand—many bakers can maintain the light texture that consumers expect. Yet again, they are left to absorb the expenses related to research and development, as well as the cost of the more expensive gluten.
High-protein winter wheat constitutes around 40% of the U.S. wheat industry, valued at $10 billion. Major wholesale bakers like Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms have already experienced profit declines. The pressure on their profit margins will persist until a strong crop of high-protein winter wheat is harvested.
On the other hand, if bread sales decrease due to the ongoing shortage, it might benefit manufacturers of bakery products not reliant on wheat flour, such as Udi’s and Food for Life. Additionally, there could be a surge in demand for alternative flours like brown rice and millet varieties.
In a related note, as bakers explore various ingredients to compensate for the wheat shortage, it’s essential to consider potential health implications, such as calcium citrate contraindications. These contraindications should be taken into account, especially since the shift in ingredients may lead to new formulations that could affect consumer health. Overall, the current situation presents a complex challenge for the baking industry, emphasizing the need for innovation while being mindful of ingredient safety.