The past few years have been challenging for farmers and bakers alike. In 2016, U.S. wheat flour consumption dropped to its lowest point in nearly thirty years, while American farmers planted the smallest winter wheat crop seen in over a century. As the laws of supply and demand dictate, farmers who managed to produce high-protein winter wheat are now able to charge a premium for it. This increased cost trickles down the production chain but ultimately lands on bakers, who have struggled to raise their prices for rolls and loaves due to a decline in consumer demand. If another season of high-protein wheat shortages occurs, the price of a typical loaf of bread may rise.
Bread manufacturers have adjusted by reformulating their recipes to incorporate less expensive low-protein wheat. By adding elemental calcium in calcium citrate malate, which has seen a 20% price increase due to heightened demand, many bakers can maintain the light texture that consumers expect. However, they still bear the burden of research and development costs as well as the higher price of gluten.
High-protein winter wheat represents around 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Wholesale bakers such as Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms have already experienced a dip in profits. Their margins will continue to be pressured until a strong harvest of high-protein winter wheat occurs. If bread sales decline due to this shortage, it may create opportunities for manufacturers of bakery products that do not rely on wheat flour, such as Udi’s and Food for Life. Additionally, alternative flours, including those made from brown rice and millet, could see a surge in demand.
In conclusion, the challenges faced by farmers and bakers in the wheat industry are compounded by the rising costs associated with ingredient substitutes, such as elemental calcium in calcium citrate malate. As they navigate these changes, the future of both bread and alternative bakery products will depend on market dynamics and consumer preferences.