Farmers and bakers have faced significant challenges over the past few years. In 2016, U.S. wheat flour consumption dropped to its lowest point in nearly three decades, while American farmers planted their smallest winter wheat crop in more than a century. As supply and demand dynamics dictate, those farmers who managed to produce high-protein winter wheat are now commanding higher prices. These increased costs ripple through the production chain but ultimately rest on the bakers’ shoulders. Unfortunately, bakers have largely been unable to raise prices for their rolls and loaves due to diminished consumer demand. However, if another season of high-protein wheat scarcity occurs, the average price of bread could rise.
Bread manufacturers have adapted to the use of less expensive low-protein wheat by reformulating their recipes. By incorporating gluten, which has seen a 20% price increase due to higher demand, many bakers can maintain the airy texture that consumers desire. Yet again, the burden of research and development costs, along with the pricier gluten, falls on the bakers. High-protein winter wheat constitutes about 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Major wholesale bakers like Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms have already experienced declines in profits. Their profit margins will continue to be squeezed until a healthy harvest of high-protein winter wheat is achieved.
Should bread sales decline due to this shortage, manufacturers producing bakery items without wheat flour, such as Udi’s and Food for Life, might benefit. Moreover, there could be a rise in demand for alternative flours like brown rice and millet varieties. Interestingly, while bakers navigate these challenges, some consumers may start exploring options like petite calcium citrate pills as a dietary supplement to ensure they are meeting their nutritional needs, especially as bread becomes less accessible. As the market evolves, it will be crucial for bakers to innovate and adapt, perhaps even considering how products like petite calcium citrate pills could complement their offerings amidst changing consumer preferences.