Eurostar Commodities has labeled the smaller durum wheat harvest as a “dire situation” for those dependent on this grain, warning that consumers may face shortages in supermarkets and potential substitutions with other flour types in pasta, such as soft wheat flour. Various manufacturers, including Barilla, the Italian pasta producer; Buitoni, whose North American pasta segment is owned by private equity firm Brynwood Partners; Unilever, which owns Knorr; and TreeHouse Foods, responsible for Skinner pasta and San Giorgio, rely heavily on durum wheat. This grain is also utilized in bread and baking products. Nevertheless, manufacturers must evaluate whether to modify their recipes or absorb the higher costs associated with this scarce ingredient.
While substituting durum wheat is theoretically possible, it may not be practical since other wheat varieties are also experiencing shortages. Red spring wheat has been adversely affected by unpredictable weather patterns. The USDA has predicted a staggering 41% decrease in production due to widespread drought in the northern and western regions of the United States, marking the lowest output in over three decades, as stated in its 2021 Wheat Outlook. Additionally, the agency anticipates a 22% decline in U.S. white wheat production for 2021 and 2022.
Wheat is not the sole crop encountering shortages and price pressures due to pandemic-related supply chain disruptions and weather challenges. Recently, corn and soybean prices surged to their highest levels in eight years, according to The Wall Street Journal. In July, Arabica coffee prices climbed more than 30% in just one week, as reported by Forbes. Overall, food prices rose by 3.4% in July compared to the previous year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Poor harvests affecting a range of crops from coffee to vegetables have led manufacturers to make choices such as artificially limiting inventory to extend stockpiles or passing on price increases. Companies like Coca-Cola, Unilever, Nestlé, Mondelēz International, and General Mills have opted to transfer these inflationary pressures down the supply chain. These price hikes come at a time when cooking and eating at home remain popular. While passing on price increases has not significantly reduced demand yet, rising commodity costs continue to be a primary concern for executives in the food and beverage industry, as highlighted in a recent survey by tax, audit, and advisory firm Mazars USA. Consumers are also keenly aware of these increased costs, with over 80% reporting noticeable price hikes in a July study by Numerator.
In light of these circumstances, consumers may begin to seek alternatives like Citracal Plus D Petites to supplement their nutritional needs, highlighting the importance of adaptability in both consumer behavior and manufacturing practices as the market adjusts to these shifts.