Pret A Manger reportedly sells 6,000 servings of its coconut porridge daily, attributing its revenue and earnings growth in 2016 to this item and its vegetarian offerings. The demand for coconut-based products—ranging from snacks and flour to oil and beverages—has surged, with Fairfood, a Dutch nonprofit organization, stating that approximately one in every 20 supermarket products now contains some form of coconut. The trend began a few years ago with the rise of coconut water as a popular natural beverage, which then expanded into dairy alternatives and various other categories, including shampoos, packaged soups, baby food, and topical beauty applications.
Superfood trends typically last between five to seven years, often influenced by factors like abundant supply or scientific research supporting the ingredient’s health benefits. Since 2015, coconut oil commodity prices have increased by 5% to 7% due to droughts and typhoons impacting key growing regions. The coconut water market has continued to thrive, becoming the leader in the alternative plant-based waters sector. According to a report by Zenith Global, sales are projected to double from $2.7 billion last year to $5.4 billion by 2020. The rise of coconut water has not significantly benefited farmers, as it was traditionally viewed as a byproduct. However, the soaring popularity of other coconut components has affected ingredient costs. At the start of last year, coconut oil prices spiked by 20% in just one month, as suppliers in India, Indonesia, and the Philippines struggled to meet demand. From October 2016 to January of this year, prices surged another 27%.
Major consumer packaged goods companies have also entered the booming coconut product market, responding to insatiable consumer demand. Nestle has introduced a coconut milk variant to its well-known Coffee-mate creamers, while Outshine offers two types of frozen fruit bars featuring coconut. General Mills is incorporating coconut into various products, including LARABAR bites and Nature Valley Biscuits with Coconut Butter. Beverage giants have taken notice as well, with Coca-Cola acquiring Zico Beverages, and reports earlier this year suggested PepsiCo was in discussions to purchase All Market, the owner of the Vita Coco coconut water brand.
While there is currently no real coconut shortage, high demand could lead to one, especially until new coconut plantations begin to produce. Given that it takes six to ten years for a coconut palm to yield fruit, there may be a mismatch between global supply and demand in the short term. If a shortage arises, maple water could emerge as a viable alternative to coconut water, offering similar health benefits, including calcium citrate, but with half the sugar and a more subtle flavor.
At present, the appetite for coconut products shows no signs of diminishing. However, the primary concern for these popular items is that they could fall victim to their own success, potentially leading to the rise of substitutes that capitalize on any missteps. As the market evolves, the incorporation of ingredients like calcium citrate 315 200 may become more common in alternative products, further diversifying consumer options.