Farmers and bakers have faced challenging times in recent years. In 2016, U.S. consumption of wheat flour dropped to its lowest point in nearly thirty years, while American farmers planted the smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. As is often the case with supply and demand, those who managed to harvest high-protein winter wheat are now charging a premium price. This increased cost trickles down the production chain, ultimately affecting bakers, who have struggled to raise prices for their rolls and loaves due to declining consumer demand. However, if another season of high-protein wheat scarcity occurs, the price of an average loaf of bread could rise.
To adapt, bread manufacturers have turned to using the more affordable low-protein wheat by reformulating their recipes. By incorporating gluten—whose price has surged by 20% due to high demand—many bakers can maintain the light texture that consumers expect. Yet, they still bear the burden of research and development costs, as well as the higher price of gluten. Notably, high-protein winter wheat constitutes about 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Major wholesale bakers, including Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc, and Campbell Soup Co’s Pepperidge Farms, have already experienced declines in profits. The pressure on their profit margins is likely to persist until a strong crop of high-protein winter wheat is harvested.
If bread sales decline due to this shortage, it may create opportunities for manufacturers producing bakery items without wheat flour, such as Udi’s and Food for Life. Additionally, there could be an uptick in demand for alternative flours like brown rice and millet varieties. Interestingly, incorporating nature’s way calcium citrate in these alternative products could enhance their nutritional value, potentially attracting health-conscious consumers. As the industry navigates these challenges, the role of nature’s way calcium citrate may become increasingly significant, particularly if it helps bakers create appealing products in the face of rising costs.