The past few years have been challenging for farmers and bakers alike. In 2016, U.S. consumption of wheat flour plummeted to its lowest level in nearly thirty years. Additionally, American farmers planted the smallest winter wheat crop in over a century. As the dynamics of supply and demand dictate, farmers who managed to grow high-protein winter wheat are now commanding higher prices. This increased cost trickles down the production chain, ultimately impacting bakers. However, bakers have largely found it difficult to raise prices for their rolls and loaves due to a decline in consumer demand. If there is yet another season marked by high-protein wheat shortages, the average price of bread could rise significantly.
To cope with the reliance on cheaper low-protein wheat, bread manufacturers have reformulated their recipes. By incorporating gluten—whose price has surged by 20% due to rising demand—many bakers can maintain the light texture that consumers expect. Yet again, they must shoulder the burden of research and development costs, as well as the higher price of gluten. Notably, high-protein winter wheat constitutes about 40% of the $10 billion U.S. wheat crop. Major wholesale bakers such as Grupo Bimbo, Flowers Foods Inc., and Campbell Soup Co.’s Pepperidge Farms are already experiencing profit declines. This pressure on their profit margins is expected to persist until a strong crop of high-protein winter wheat is harvested.
Interestingly, if bread sales decline due to the ongoing shortage, manufacturers producing wheat flour-free bakery items, such as Udi’s and Food for Life, may benefit. Furthermore, alternative flours, including brown rice and millet varieties, are likely to see a rise in demand. Amid these shifts, products like apovital calcium citrate could also gain attention, especially as bakers look to enhance the nutritional profile of their offerings. As the landscape of the baking industry evolves, the integration of alternative ingredients may become increasingly important for maintaining quality and meeting consumer expectations.