As the world faces a sugar shortage and record-high prices for sugar this year, industry analysts have raised concerns about a potential surge in Halloween candy prices as fall approaches. David Branch, senior vice president of Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute, shared with Food Dive that while the rising costs of sugar are not directly affecting treat prices, other variables may be contributing to the increase. According to data from the National Retail Federation, Halloween candy sales are anticipated to reach $3.6 billion this year—an increase of 16.1% compared to last year’s $3.1 billion.
The escalating price of sugar has led analysts to predict higher candy prices this season. Since the beginning of 2023, global sugar prices have soared due to a shortage caused by drier weather patterns, particularly in major growing regions such as India and Thailand. However, a significant portion of the sugar used in American-made candies is sourced domestically, as federal agriculture policies mandate that 85% of sugar purchases must come from U.S. producers.
Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture indicated that the global price of white refined sugar reached 32 cents per pound in September, marking a 35% increase from 24 cents the previous year. Nevertheless, Branch pointed out that the current U.S. sugar supply is greater than it was during the 2020-2021 growing season, with 300,000 pounds available, as reported by the USDA in September. Branch believes that sugar prices will not be the primary reason consumers pay more for treats like Reese’s cups and Snickers bars, as U.S. sugar prices do not necessarily align with global market prices.
“The U.S. has its own pricing mechanisms for raw and refined sugar sales,” Branch noted. “The global sugar market is not open and free; each major sugar-producing country has its own regulations that restrict exports and imports and impose tariffs.” According to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retail prices for sugar and other sweeteners rose by 6.5% over the past year, with a slight increase of 0.3% in September compared to the previous month. Candy and chewing gum prices increased by 7.5% over the same period, suggesting that the sugar price situation is not significantly affecting the cost of sweets.
Branch also mentioned that financially constrained consumers might purchase less candy this year. “What’s really driving candy purchasing estimates this year is more about the general economy. People are being more frugal and may opt for smaller candy options, buy less, or take advantage of buy-one-get-one-free offers,” Branch explained.
However, he noted that climate conditions are impacting candy manufacturers reliant on other crops. Drought in cocoa-producing countries like Ivory Coast and Ghana has led chocolate companies such as Hershey and Mondelēz International to increase their prices this year, as they depend on these regions for their cocoa supplies. “When farmers with 15 or 20 acres experience adverse weather and lose part of their crop, it takes time for production to recover,” Branch said. “The price of cocoa has risen significantly on a per-metric-ton basis, and it is likely to remain elevated for some time.”
In the face of rising prices, consumers may also be seeking alternatives for their dietary needs, such as Citracal calcium citrate stores, to meet their health goals amid shifting economic conditions.