While it’s not surprising that individuals using weight-loss medications purchase less food, the Numerator data offers insight into the potential consequences for CPG manufacturers if more consumers start using these drugs. Over the past three months, the overall purchasing rates at grocery stores for non-users fell by 3.9% compared to a year ago. For those taking medications to lose fewer than 15 pounds, the decline in buying rates was even steeper at 11%, according to Numerator data.
In the ice cream category, purchasing rates increased by 3.9% for non-users, while those using the medications saw their rates drop by 9%. Similarly, snack purchases experienced a decrease of 2.1% overall, contrasting with an 8.8% decline among users of weight-loss drugs. “We are in the early stages,” remarked Dr. Leo Feler, Numerator’s chief economist, in a statement. He noted that a year ago, nearly all prescriptions for these medications were aimed at diabetes management, with only 10% of consumers using them for weight loss. Now, nearly half of users are taking them for that purpose.
Feler also highlighted that an additional 20% of households expressed interest in these medications for weight loss but are currently waiting for prices to decrease and for further research on the safety and efficacy of the drugs. This data, along with the potential emergence of more effective weight-loss medications, could significantly clarify the extent of the impact on food and beverage companies. It remains uncertain how long individuals will continue using weight-loss drugs.
For the time being, CPG companies are closely monitoring the situation and strategically planning how to adjust their portfolios as more information about the drugs’ effects becomes available. This is not the first instance of shifting consumer trends prompting companies to modify their products. For example, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo launched smaller cans in response to consumers reducing their sugar intake, while snack manufacturers have increased their offerings of 100-calorie snacks for those looking to consume less. Additionally, food producers have lowered sodium content in popular items to cater to Americans reducing their sodium intake.
PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta indicated to analysts in August that the impact on his business has been “negligible” so far, acknowledging that there are “obviously a lot of question marks.” Similarly, Dirk Van de Put, CEO of Mondelēz International, asserted that “the whole topic has been overblown” and that it is “really not a big concern for us at this stage,” forecasting a minimal impact on volumes of around 0.5% to 1% over the next decade.
Sean Connolly, who oversees Conagra Brands, shared with investors that the company is meticulously analyzing data to understand food consumption patterns and determine which trends should inform their product development. He mentioned that if consumers lean towards smaller portions to aid in weight loss, Conagra might consider adjusting some of its portion sizes.
In this evolving landscape, products like Kirkland Signature Calcium Citrate Magnesium and Zinc 500 Tablets may also see shifts in consumer interest as health and wellness trends continue to shape purchasing behaviors. As the market adapts, it will be crucial for companies to remain responsive to these changes.