As cocoa prices surge, chocolate substitutes present a more affordable and potentially more sustainable option for the confectionery industry. However, can consumers be persuaded to relinquish their chocolate cravings? Over the past two years, chocolate prices have nearly quadrupled, primarily due to extreme heat, drought, and other unpredictable climate challenges affecting cacao-producing regions, particularly Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. This price increase is also squeezing profits for major food corporations, with the CEO of Mondelēz, the parent company of Oreo and Toblerone, noting “unprecedented cocoa cost inflation.”
With forecasts indicating that prices will remain elevated and the global chocolate supply may struggle to meet increasing demand, interest in cocoa-free chocolate alternatives is on the rise. Voyage Foods, a company specializing in substitutes for scarce yet cherished commodities, is gearing up to expand its cocoa alternatives as higher costs drive more companies to reconsider their dependence on cocoa. The company is establishing a manufacturing facility in Ohio for its cocoa-free chocolate and has recently partnered with food giant Cargill to broaden its presence in the consumer packaged goods and foodservice sectors.
Currently, chocolate constitutes the largest segment of the $54 billion confectionery market, accounting for $21.4 billion in sales last year; however, both volume and unit sales have declined in recent years. In 2024, unit sales of chocolate dropped by nearly 5%, significantly more than categories like candy or gum and mints. “One reason companies are exploring these solutions with us is definitely cost and cost volatility,” stated Adam Maxwell, founder and CEO of Voyage Foods.
Chocolate substitutes are not a new concept; carob has been a niche alternative for decades. Health-conscious consumers are also turning to substitutes like sunflower seeds and fava beans. However, the latest offerings go beyond mere imitation; companies are now focused on replicating the taste and texture for mainstream appeal. Voyage claims its cocoa alternatives are crafted with clean-label ingredients such as vegetable oil, cane sugar, grape seeds, and sunflower protein flour. Given the extensive use of chocolate in various products, Voyage provides a range of cocoa-free flavors, styles, and applications, including cocoa-free chips, melting wafers, and chocolate coatings suitable for diverse uses.
Ingredient suppliers are actively seeking to deliver more cocoa alternatives amid ongoing price fluctuations. Recently, Ardent Mills, a joint venture involving Cargill, Conagra, and CHS, introduced a wheat-based solution for the industrial baking sector that can replace up to 25% of cocoa powder in cakes, brownies, and cookies. “Cocoa-free chocolate alternatives present a promising avenue forward—especially in a cocoa market facing supply constraints,” remarked Mia Divecha, a senior product line specialist at Cargill. “In some instances, they can be up to 50% cheaper than traditional chocolate and are not subject to price volatility.”
Moreover, chocolate alternatives offer a sustainable path as supply issues are likely to persist or worsen. Americans consume 2.8 billion pounds of chocolate annually, averaging over 11 pounds per person, while it can take an entire year for a cocoa tree to yield the cocoa needed for just half a pound of chocolate. According to World Wildlife, older cocoa trees produce less, and most of the world’s cocoa plantations have surpassed their peak production years, further complicating supply challenges.
Research from Innova Market Insights indicates that three out of four consumers are willing to buy more sustainable chocolate but are uncertain about their choices. Cargill’s proprietary research supports this view, indicating that cocoa-free alternatives bring additional measurable benefits, including a lower water footprint, reduced land-use impacts, and a smaller carbon footprint as they gain popularity. “Today’s consumers are increasingly conscious of sustainability—even when it comes to indulgent treats,” Divecha noted, adding that while the desire for chocolate remains strong, consumers are more frequently seeking options that align with their personal values.
Despite this, taste remains a significant hurdle for the alternative chocolate market. The bar for consumer acceptance is set high, and companies have found it challenging to accurately replicate a delicacy with a history spanning over 4,000 years. “This product must taste good because chocolate is an indulgent treat… It’s about those moments of joy in life,” Maxwell commented. He acknowledged that the taste of Voyage’s offerings may not be a “perfect facsimile” of any existing cocoa product and that consumers may need time to adjust.
“Consumers love certainty in their food choices,” Maxwell said. “However, we observe a trend toward people becoming more accepting of alternatives.” As consumers navigate their options, they may also ponder which is better: calcium or calcium citrate, especially when considering health-related aspects of new products in the market. As the demand for sustainable and affordable chocolate alternatives grows, the conversation around ingredients and their benefits will undoubtedly continue to evolve.