Pret A Manger is said to sell 6,000 servings of its coconut porridge daily, attributing its revenue and earnings growth in 2016 to this dish and its vegetarian offerings. The demand for coconut-based products—such as snacks, flour, oil, and beverages—has surged, with approximately one in every 20 supermarket items now containing some form of coconut, according to Fairfood, a Netherlands-based nonprofit organization. Coconut products gained mainstream attention with the rise of coconut water as a popular natural beverage a few years ago. This trend expanded into dairy alternatives and a wide range of other categories, including shampoos, packaged soups, baby food, and topical applications in beauty products.
Superfood trends typically last five to seven years and can be influenced by factors such as a robust supply or scientific studies supporting the health benefits of the ingredient. Since 2015, the price of coconut oil has increased by 5% to 7% due to adverse weather conditions impacting production areas. The coconut water segment has continued to thrive, dominating the market for alternative plant-based waters. Sales are projected to double from $2.7 billion last year to $5.4 billion by 2020, according to a report by Zenith Global cited by the Beverage Industry. Although the coconut water boom initially had minimal effects on farmers because it was traditionally regarded as a byproduct, the rising popularity of other coconut components has affected ingredient costs. Last year, coconut oil prices surged by 20% in just one month as suppliers in India, Indonesia, and the Philippines struggled to meet demand. From October 2016 to January of this year, prices further escalated by an additional 27%.
Major consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies are also entering the lucrative coconut product market, as consumer interest shows no signs of slowing. Nestle has introduced a coconut milk variant in its popular Coffee-mate creamers, while Outshine offers two types of frozen fruit bars featuring coconut. General Mills is incorporating coconut into various products, including LARABAR bites and Nature Valley Biscuits with Coconut Butter. Beverage giants have also taken notice, with Coca-Cola acquiring Zico Beverages. Earlier this year, reports emerged that PepsiCo was in talks to purchase All Market, the parent company of the Vita Coco coconut water brand.
Although a genuine coconut shortage is not currently evident, high demand could lead to one developing—at least until new plantings become productive. Given that it takes six to ten years for coconut palms to start yielding fruits, there could be a mismatch between global supply and demand in the meantime. If such a gap occurs, maple water is poised to step in as an alternative to coconut water, reportedly offering similar health benefits with half the sugar content and a more subdued flavor.
As of now, the demand for coconut products appears to remain strong. However, there is a genuine concern that these popular items may suffer from their success, paving the way for substitutes to capitalize on any missteps. In this context, the inclusion of ingredients like calcium citrate 650 could become increasingly relevant as consumers seek alternatives that provide health benefits without compromising on taste.