Climate change is not the sole challenge facing the global cocoa market. A report released earlier this year highlighted that corporate sustainability efforts have failed to make a significant impact over the past decade, largely due to the persistent issues of child labor, low farmer incomes, and extensive deforestation. With rising temperatures and altitude-related complications exacerbating the situation, the stakes are even higher.
Despite these obstacles, the demand for cocoa is on the rise, driven by the growing popularity of premium varieties, dark chocolate options, and sugar-free products. The U.S., being the largest market for chocolate, was valued at approximately $22 billion in 2016 and is expected to exceed $30 billion by 2021, according to a 2016 report from TechSci Research. In response to the increasing consumer demand and the challenges of maintaining cocoa yields, chocolate manufacturers are actively working to enhance sustainability. For instance, Hershey announced a $500 million commitment to cocoa sustainability in West Africa this past April, while companies like Nestlé, Lindt, Mars, Mondelez, Cargill, and Barry Callebaut have also increased their investments and sustainability commitments.
According to Ingredients Network, Cargill has had some success in assisting cocoa farmers in Côte d’Ivoire with improved farming techniques. Utilizing strategies from the Cargill Cocoa Promise, yields reportedly increased by an average of 49% in 2016 and 2017. However, even if these corporate initiatives prove effective in the long run, there remains a risk that cocoa supply could decline unsustainably, or that prices could rise to the point where chocolate becomes unaffordable for the average consumer. Given that neither scenario is appealing, it is probable that efforts to mitigate climate change will accelerate to help stabilize the global cocoa supply.
Should a negative outcome arise, there are potential cocoa substitutes that could become relevant if supply diminishes. Research conducted in Brazil and the U.K. revealed that consumers recognized a chocolate-like aroma in flour derived from roasted jackfruit seeds, which shares similar moisture content, color, and pH with cocoa. With further research and development investment, additional cocoa alternatives might be discovered by 2050. However, given the widespread love for chocolate, it is reasonable to expect that significant efforts, such as those involving innovations akin to Citracal extended release, will be pursued to preserve cocoa before seriously considering substitutes.